Wisconsin Basketball: Can the Badgers still reach the 2018 NCAA Tournament?
Wisconsin basketball has been ravished by injuries and late-game struggles so far. With Big Ten play continuing soon, can the Badgers return to the Big Dance?
The Wisconsin basketball team has reached the NCAA Tournament in each of the past 19 seasons, the sixth-longest streak in the entire nation. For what might be the first time in 20 years, though, the Badgers will need to climb a massive mountain to keep that streak alive. The non-conference schedule has not been kind to Wisconsin and it will be difficult for them to get themselves back into the at-large conversation.
Big Ten play continues soon and Wisconsin needs to get on track in a hurry. When it comes to breaking down an early-season resume, it is important to look at both the negatives and the positives of what has already happened before moving towards the goals of the future.
What has gone wrong for Wisconsin?
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For starters, the Badgers have arguably been one of the worst closing teams in the nation. Although there have been several games in which their lead or their deficit has been less than five points, the only game in which they actually came away with a victory was their road win over Penn State. The late-game play has definitely been an issue for this team so far but the biggest issue moving forward is their current resume and their health.
According to RPI and KenPom, Wisconsin’s best four wins of the season are over Penn State, Western Kentucky, Yale, and Milwaukee. None of these teams are expected at the moment to be NCAA Tournament teams and that does not bode well for Wisconsin. In fact, the Badgers do not have a single non-conference victory over any Power 6 teams.
In addition, Wisconsin is dealing with three major injuries to their backcourt. The biggest of these injuries occurred to freshman guard Kobe King (5.2 points), who is sidelined for the entire rest of the season with a knee injury. Although King was coming off the bench, he was a major spark plug on the offensive end and this team already struggles on that end of the floor.
Next, sophomore point guard D’Mitrik Trice (9.4 points) will miss an indefinite period of time after having surgery on his foot. Trice started nearly every game prior to his injury and was the only member of the backcourt to have extensive experience at the college level. Lastly, freshman Brad Davison is still dealing with a shoulder injury. He has not missed any games this season, nor is he expected to, but playing on an injured shoulder is sure to hamper his productivity.
What has gone right for Wisconsin?
To be honest, not all that much. Their overall record of 5-7 puts them in a tough position and they are lacking quality wins, as mentioned above. Yet, their non-conference schedule, which is ranked 12th in the nation, is impressive and will help to bring up their metrics. In addition, their RPI (83) and KenPom (62) rankings are higher than one would expect from a team without any good wins and a below-.500 record.
Moving forward, the good news is that they have a solid duo in Davison and Ethan Happ (16.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists). Both of them are off to solid starts as individuals but they are going to need help if the team is going to win games in the Big Ten. The most important players who need to step up are Aleem Ford (5.3 points, 41.2 3P%) and Brevin Pritzl (7.6 points, 36.4 3P%). Both of these players are vital in the rotation as guys who will need to knock down 3-pointers to open the floor for Happ inside.
In addition, the Badgers’ defense has been their calling card so far this season. They are giving up just 66.5 points per game, which ranks 69th in the nation. More importantly, their field goal percentage allows ranks near the middle of the country at 45.1%.
What needs to be done to make the Big Dance?
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This might seem obvious but the Badgers simply need to win games in conference play. There is practically no room for error and the Badgers need to defeat the lower-level teams in the conference and come away with a couple of major wins over the top teams. The situation for the Badgers should not be sugar-coated; they are in big trouble.
Another issue facing Wisconsin is that the Big Ten is not very strong this year. At this point in the season, it looks like the only two teams that are truly resume-builders are Michigan State and Purdue. These two teams are nationally ranked in the top-25 and have the respect of the nation. Thankfully for Wisconsin, they will have two shots at each of these teams. Going at least 1-3 in these games is an absolute must.
Already with seven losses on the season, Wisconsin has to shoot for around only 13 losses on the season. Assuming they win their next three games over Green Bay, Chicago State, and Massachusetts-Lowell, this would mean the Badgers would need to finish 10-6 in the remaining Big Ten games on their schedule.
In order to do this, the team would need to achieve several difficult wins along the way. And, even if this occurs, the Badgers will be firmly on the bubble.
Next: Big Ten power rankings after week 6
As of now, it looks extremely unlikely that Wisconsin will find a way to reach the NCAA Tournament. This will probably end up being the end of one of the longest current streaks in college basketball. Still, there is some hope left for Badger fans and they need to hang on to that for as long as possible.