After upsetting Villanova at home, Butler basketball has stumbled as of late. How can the Bulldogs recover from losing three in a row to ranked opponents?
Entering conference play, there was a lot of skepticism regarding how Butler basketball would fare in the Big East this year. The non-conference slate proved that the team would at the very least compete for an NCAA Tournament bid but still showed plenty of inconsistencies. The Bulldogs played by far the most difficult Big East schedule through five games.
The team is 2-3 in conference play after these games, four of which were against nationally ranked opponents. All things considered, this is a solid start to conference play by the Dawgs but it could have been much better. After winning their first two conference games (at Georgetown, vs. Villanova), Butler has lost their last three, one of which came in a collapse against Seton Hall.
Moving forward, Butler is entering an incredibly important part of their schedule. Their next six games come against Marquette (home), Providence (road), DePaul (road), St. John’s (home), Marquette (road), and DePaul (home). Butler should be favored in at least four of these games. The Bulldogs could really use a 4-2 or 5-1 stretch in these games to feel comfortable in the projected NCAA Tournament field.
There are still many of the same insecurities when it comes to trusting this team that were present after non-conference play. So, what are the team’s biggest weaknesses and how can they improve?
Where is the defense?
Butler is a program that has prided itself on toughness and grit over the years. Bulldog fans expected the same toughness and grit under new head coach LaVall Jordan. And while Jordan has done a very solid job so far this season with his team, the defense has seemingly disappeared since conference play started. In five games, Butler’s scoring defense is second-to-last in the conference, allowing 88.6 points per contest.
Before going more in-depth on this issue, it is important to note Butler’s competition. Of their first five conference opponents, three rank in the top-20 in scoring offenses nationally (two of which are in the top-10). In addition, the game against Georgetown went to two overtimes, which certainly increased the scoring production. Nonetheless, the poor defense needs fixing.
Baldwin and Thompson are the defensive keys
Kamar Baldwin and Aaron Thompson should combine to form one of the best defensive backcourts in the conference. However, both players are struggling defensively for different reasons. For Baldwin, he is having to do too much on the offensive end. The young sophomore is a fantastic player but if he is going to be asked to score 20+ per game, he cannot be the elite defender he normally is.
Thompson, on the other hand, just does not stay on the floor. Since conference play started, Thompson has committed a foul every 5.5 minutes on average. Due to this, he has sat on the bench for extended periods of time, limiting his effectiveness. In addition, he can be a liability on offense due to his inability to shoot from three.
There are other issues with Butler’s defense but fixing it starts with the backcourt.
How can the Bulldogs remedy the free throw disparity?
Butler Bulldogs Basketball
There is no clear-cut answer to this one. Simply put, Butler has one of the worst free throw disparities in the country. For the season, the Bulldogs are attempting 16.3 foul shots per game while their opponents are attempting 18.8. This disparity might not look like much but when opponents are shooting 2.5 more free throws per game, those points start to pile up in a hurry.
More notably than just Butler’s season numbers, the disparity in conference play has been even worse. In those five games, Butler is at 17.4 FTA and the opposition is at 25.2 FTA. This differential of 7.8 FTA per game is absolutely humongous and needs to be remedied. This is a result of Butler fouling too much and not being aggressive enough on offense.
For Butler to improve, their stars need to do a better job of drawing contact when in the lane. Baldwin and Martin are attacking more than last year but are often settling for floaters instead of inviting contact. In addition, the team needs to avoid picking up cheap fouls away from the basket on defense.
Who can score inside?
The three leading scorers for Butler (Martin, Baldwin, and Paul Jorgensen) all play on the perimeter. Although this is not surprising in this age of basketball, it is a problem that Butler has no one to go to inside. Starting center Tyler Wideman has always been more of a rebounder and strong body in the paint rather than a post scorer. Off the bench, Nate Fowler is a stretch big that, despite showing some nice moves around the basket, does not play well through contact.
This is where the loss of Andrew Chrabascz, who graduated after last season, has hurt the team the most. Even though Chrabascz was a 3-point threat and a great passer, his biggest impact came from having incredible gravity in the paint. He had a variety of post moves around the basket that made him very difficult to stop.
That is the offensive dimension that Butler is missing the most right now. They do not need someone to step in and be as good as Chrabascz, but they need a post player to contribute three to four buckets per game around the basket. This is Wideman’s last year on campus so it is unlikely to be him as the solution. That leaves LaVall Jordan with two options: Nate Fowler and Joey Brunk.
Both Fowler and Brunk have the right body and skill set to make this happen but they need to be better at playing through contact. If one of those two steps up, this can be a whole different team.
Next: Where is Butler in our latest Bracketology?
On the whole, Butler is still in pretty good shape to reach the NCAA Tournament. This upcoming stretch is a great chance to add a few quality wins. If Butler goes 4-2 or 5-1 over the next six games, it would take a collapse for them to miss the Big Dance.