Virginia Tech Basketball: Are the Hokies an NCAA Tournament team?
The Virginia Tech Hokies do have some momentum following a Monday night win over the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Whenever a team upsets a big name, attention immediately turns towards the former underdogs – as it should.
So today’s question is about those Virginia Tech Hokies, fresh off an upset over the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Are the Hokies an NCAA Tournament team?
Their record doesn’t jump off a page. They’re now 14-6 on the season, including a measly 3-4 in ACC play. While convincing, this was also their first victory over a team ranked in the AP Top 25.
Virginia Tech’s nonconference schedule is also nothing special. They beat teams like Washington, Ole Miss, and Iowa, major conference foes having significant down seasons. Their only losses were to Saint Louis and Kentucky, both of which were single-digit defeats.
In ACC play, they’ve beaten the opponents they should have (Wake Forest, Pitt) while lost to the opponents they should have (Louisville, Virginia). This is the first time they’ve moved the conference needle in either direction.
The Hokies do run one of the more exciting offenses this side of the Mississippi. They’re averaging 85.3 points per game and 17.5 assists per game, both ranking among the top 25 schools in the country.
But an exciting offense does not make an NCAA Tournament team. According to ESPN’s BPI metric, the Hokies only have a 26% chance of making the Big Dance – and that came after the big win.
Very big win tonight for Virginia Tech at home. Had the Hokies lost to the Tar Heels their tournament chances would have been down to 11 percent per BPI. With the win that number rises to 26 percent.
— Paul Sabin (@SabinAnalytics) January 23, 2018
Winning more games against fringe ACC teams would help their cause. Their next four games are against bubble squads (at Notre Dame and Boston College, home against Miami and NC State). Victories in those games could separate them from the pace.
A couple of big upsets wouldn’t hurt either. Circle mid-February, when they have consecutive road games at Virginia and Duke, both scheduled for national television.
Virginia Tech has not made consecutive trips to the NCAA Tournament since 1985-86. They could do it this year, but they still have a long way to go.