The North Carolina Tar Heels are back home and hosting in-state rival North Carolina State while the Wolfpack continues their road trip with a game at Chapel Hill.
TV Schedule: Saturday, Jan. 27 at Noon ET on CBS
Arena: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
The North Carolina Tar Heels were on a very nice four-game winning streak. After two heartbreaking defeats, UNC made adjustments and seemed to be back. Then came a terrible shooting game against Virginia Tech which gave the Hokies the win they were looking for.
NC State has certainly been up and down all season. They only had three non-conference losses, but two are ones they would love to have back. They opened up ACC play with losses to Clemson and Notre Dame. The Wolfpack then got a huge win over Duke, avenged their loss to the Tigers, but lost to Virginia. The only other quality opponent came on Jan. 21 where NC State lost to Miami.
Both teams don’t have any dumb ACC losses. Virginia Tech was a borderline bubble team and now look really good with their win. Our latest Bracketology came out before that game so expect to see the Hokies mentioned somewhere. Clemson’s only recent wins have against Wake Forest and Pittsburgh.
As for these two teams in the projected bracket, the Tar Heels were a two seed at the beginning of the week. They may move to the three line now that Oklahoma picked up a big-time win over Kansas. NC State, on the other hand, falls into the Next Four Out category. They could be considered in the First Four Out right now, but probably no seed line for now.
Things could honestly change by Saturday afternoon. If the Wolfpack pick up this victory, they would have great wins over Arizona, Duke, Clemson and North Carolina. Their defeats to UNC-Greensboro and Northern Iowa could quickly be forgiven.
North Carolina has an ugly, ugly loss to Wofford in December. It hasn’t been enough though to knock them any further down than a three seed. That’s created a lot of controversy. There have been good wins to Arkansas (again), Michigan, Ohio State and Tennessee. The Tar Heels then have looked really good in the ACC. Their only hiccups were a shootout to Florida State and a defeat to a Virginia team who has a suffocating defense.
NC State has recently made some changes to their starting lineup. Baylor graduate transfer Allerik Freeman was their starting point guard but was benched after the Wake Forest win. The Wolfpack won by nine, but Freeman didn’t have a great game. He shot 2 for 7 from the field for five points and only had two assists.
Instead, NC State started sophomore Markell Johnson against Miami. They lost in a very high scoring game. Johnson finished with 14 assists but was held scoreless. Freeman contributed 13 points and three assists off the bench.
Johnson also got the start against Pittsburgh. The Wolfpack beat them by four which was probably not as much as they wanted to. Nonetheless, Johnson recorded 12 assists and Freeman scored another 13 off the bench.
It’ll be interesting to now see if Johnson continues to get the start against the Tar Heels. He’ll have to go up against one of the more experienced leaders in Joel Berry II. The Tar Heel guard had a very nice game 23 points against Virginia Tech, but it didn’t matter since he and Luke Maye were the only guys scoring.
North Carolina is going to try and control the game with their great-shooting guards. The Tar Heels are a better three-point shooting team now that Cameron Johnson has come on. Berry has a ridiculous 54 total three-pointers this season.
The Wolfpack counters with balance as Freeman and Braxton Beverly have 34 apiece. One difference maker NC State has going for them is Sam Hunt. He’s a guard coming off the bench and has hit 30 this season. UNC only has one bench player in double-figures when it comes to made three-pointers and that’s Jalek Felton at 11.
Both teams have a starting big man that is capable of knocking down three-pointers. Omer Yurtseven is a seven-footer who has 13 three-pointers this season. Maye only goes six-foot-seven, but he plays bigger and has more than twice as many as Yurtseven.
UNC and NC State allow 70 points per game so the Tar Heels won’t be the worst defensive team on the court. North Carolina State only goes four deep while UNC unloads their bench each and every game.
The North Carolina Tar Heels should be able to use their depth and experience to their advantage in this game. The Wolfpack have been playing really decent since ACC play has started. They’re still in the Tournament discussion with some pretty good wins. UNC, on the other hand, is coming off their worst performance since conference play has started. North Carolina is going to to be on their home court with a chip on their shoulder from last game.
Prediction: North Carolina 82 North Carolina State 75