NCAA Basketball: 4 teams in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament
TCU Horned Frogs, 15-6 (3-5 Big 12)
Peaked at No. 10 in the AP Poll (Week 8)
The TCU Horned Frogs were one of the last unbeaten teams but have since slid towards the bottom of the Big 12 standings and have fallen out of the AP Poll entirely. They opened Big 12 play with a 1-4 record, but all of those losses were by five points or less and two were in overtime. Three of those losses were to top ten teams (Kansas and Oklahoma twice) and the fourth was on the road against a good Texas team.
These losses were hardly concerning at the time. They were just a product of playing in the Big 12, the best conference in the country. But TCU’s season has taken a turn for the worse. The Horned Frog’s best player and starting point guard, Jaylen Fisher, suffered a season-ending injury which significantly lowers their ceiling.
TCU managed to upset West Virginia, but then erased all positive momentum by inexplicably losing to Vanderbilt, the worst team in the SEC. The upcoming schedule does not get any easier as they travel to Oklahoma State before playing two top-10 teams in a row (Texas Tech and Kansas).
Their non-conference resume has also started to lose some its luster as St. Bonaventure and SMU have not lived up to pre-season expectations. Even TCU’s win over Nevada has lost some value because the Wolf Pack has taken some head scratching losses. A 1-4 road record could also be problematic.
Even without Fisher, TCU has more than enough talent to turn things around. Kenrich Williams is one of the most underappreciated players in the country and is averaging 14.5 ppg and 9.6 rpg. He is a sharpshooting combo forward who also ranks second in rebounding and in steals in the Big 12.
Starting wing Desmond Bane is a good athlete and a knockdown perimeter shooter who is averaging 11.7 ppg. Vladimir Brodziansky is the team’s leading scorer and is one of the most offensively skilled big men in the country. Kuoat Noi is an intriguing stretch four prospect who has been the team’s biggest surprise.
Alex Robinson has taken over the starting point guard role from Fisher and pass-first guard with great vision, but a shaky jumper. While he seems like a suitable replacement, the numbers tell a different story. Robinson has the worst net rating on the team in conference play at -10.7. This means that TCU is almost 11 points worse per 100 possessions when Robinson is on the court.
With this group, TCU certainly has enough talent to safely reach the NCAA Tournament, but they need to accumulate more wins. They cannot win these games unless they get high level guard play from Robinson. This is not as simple as it sounds when you play in the Big 12 as there are no easy games in the conference.
Prediction: TCU finishes at 9-9 in the Big 12 and earns a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. According to RPI Wizard, this would put them at RPI 22 and SOS 12 before the Big 12 Tournament.