NCAA Basketball: 4 teams in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament
Texas A&M Aggies, 13-8 (2-6 SEC)
Peaked at No. 5 in the AP Poll (Week 8)
The Texas A&M Aggies earned a signature win on the first night of the season by knocking off West Virginia in Germany. They rode this momentum to an 11-1 non-conference record, highlighted by wins over USC, Oklahoma State, and Penn State all away from home. Their lone loss was in a semi-road game against Arizona.
This resume rightfully elevated Texas A&M to a top-five ranking in the AP Poll, but a mixture of injuries and suspensions caused the wheels to fall off. The Aggies were able to withstand some of the absences towards the end of the non-conference before the inconsistency caught up with them in SEC play.
Texas A&M has gotten everyone back, but the damage has been done. They are currently 2-6 in SEC play and their only wins have come against Missouri and Ole Miss. Most of the losses are to quality teams, but being swept by LSU will sting on Selection Sunday.
Tyler Davis and Tonny Trocha-Morelos are the only rotation players to have played in every game. Star guard Admon Gilder missed five games due to injury and has yet to regain his early season form. In the first ten games of the season, Gilder averaged 12.7 ppg, but has only scored 9.2 ppg in the six games since the injury.
Future NBA first-rounder Robert Williams and standout wing D.J. Hogg have missed five and three games respectively due to suspensions. Starting point guard Duane Wilson has missed three games himself. This lack of a consistent roster has undoubtedly hurt this talented squad, especially because some of the best players are missing games.
Texas A&M is an excellent defensive team (No. 6 in KenPom) but their offense struggles, especially from long range. Hogg and Gilder are normally excellent shooters but they have disappointed in conference play since coming off of their extended absences. Hogg is shooting 22% from three in conference play while Gilder is shooting 26%. Both players need to find their shooting strokes for A&M to reach the Big Dance.
The Aggies also lack offensive spacing because they use a traditional lineup with Williams and Davis playing together in the frontcourt. Neither player has the consistent ability to stretch the defense which clogs the paint. Duane Wilson’s 28% three-point shooting also contributes to A&M’s offensive woes.
The next two games against Arkansas and South Carolina (both at home) are must wins. This would give Texas A&M two solid wins, but more importantly, would prevent them from falling to 13-10. Losing either game is not a bad loss, but the Aggies need to start winning games instead of racking up quality losses.
It is worth mentioning that Texas A&M has suffered from its fair share of bad luck on the court. They lost at Kentucky on a questionable no-call and lost at LSU on an improbable buzzer-beating three by Tremont Waters. This does not change the fact that Texas A&M desperately needs wins as the NIT is looking more and more realistic.
Next: Arizona's 3 biggest flaws
Prediction: Texas A&M finishes at 9-9 in the SEC and earns a 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament. According to RPI Wizard, this would give them a 23rd RPI and 7th SOS which puts them safely in the field.