Bracketology: Breaking down the 2018 Bracket Preview

Once again, the selection committee for the NCAA Tournament released their top-16 teams at this point in the year. Who found a spot and what does it mean?

On Feb. 11, the NCAA Tournament selection committee released their top-16 teams as of that day. While there were a few surprises, most of the selections were expected and so was the order in which they were announced. With a little over a month until Selection Sunday, this seeding announcement showed how the committee is thinking at this point in the season.

The placement of Michigan State and Duke were the largest talking points of this reveal. While the Spartans were seeded lower than many expected with a No. 3 seed, the Blue Devils were awarded a No. 2 seed despite losing their last two games. Of course, this serves as a reminder that the committee does not take into account recent activity. The complete body of work is what matters most and Duke dominates in almost all resume rankings (RPI, KenPom, BPI, Sagarin).

Here is a look at the entire Bracket Preview from Feb. 11:

According to NCAA.com, the committee had this to say about their selections:

"“When the committee started our meeting on Tuesday, I think there was a general agreement on who the top three teams were, but by late Saturday night that group had grown to four,” said Rasmussen [committee chair]. “We initially felt Villanova was the overall top seed, but we flipped that Thursday morning after the Wildcats lost to St. John’s at home and Virginia won at Florida State.  Despite UVA’s loss Saturday, we felt that based on their 13 wins in the first two quadrants, they deserved to remain on top. Villanova bounced back with a good win Saturday, so we kept them second. Purdue had two tough losses to quality teams, while Xavier picked up two good road wins to solidify the fourth No. 1 seed and ultimately leap Purdue on the seed list.”"

While many will argue for other teams to sit on the top line, I think that these are the four best teams in the country. Even though three of the four teams lost over the past week, these were my No. 1 seeds in my most recent Bracketology update (Monday, Jan. 5). There will, of course, be plenty of shifts over the coming weeks that will affect the top lines and everything else in the tournament field.

In regards to the seeding of teams not mentioned in this preview, the placement of Kansas could be the biggest indicator of what the committee is valuing this year. Specifically, the Jayhawks were awarded a No. 2 seed and the No. 6 overall ranking. When looking at their resume, this is clearly because of their high number of Quadrant 1+2 wins.

A team’s strength of schedule, in addition to their strength of wins, will be a major part of the tournament field selection this season. For teams sitting right on the cutline right now, piling up Quadrant 1 and 2 wins is the most important part of resume-building at this point in the season. For those people who are fans of mid-major teams, such as St. Bonaventure and Boise State, this does not bode well.

The other mid-major team worth talking about in regards to this is Rhode Island. The Rams have a tremendous record and a resume that seems to be awfully close to the top-16. Yet, they did not hear their name called in the Bracket Preview. They have a tremendous RPI but are just average among at-large teams in terms of KenPom, BPI, and Sagarin rankings. At this point, it looks like Rhode Island will not be able to play their way into a protected seed. They will need to win games and get help from the teams in front of them.

Next: Bubble Watch

As has been seen time and time again this season, there is no clear favorite to win the national championship. The NCAA Tournament is never random but it is unpredictable. Any of these 16 top teams, as well several others, has a legitimate shot to make a deep run in the Big Dance.