Busting Brackets
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Atlantic 10 Basketball: Conference tournament seeding shaping up

By Marcus Washington

LAHAINA, HI - NOVEMBER 20: Head coach Mike Rhoades of the VCU Rams sends in instructions to his players during the second half of the game against the Marquette Golden Eagles at Lahaina Civic Center on November 20, 2017 in Lahaina, Hawaii. (Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)
LAHAINA, HI - NOVEMBER 20: Head coach Mike Rhoades of the VCU Rams sends in instructions to his players during the second half of the game against the Marquette Golden Eagles at Lahaina Civic Center on November 20, 2017 in Lahaina, Hawaii. (Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images) /
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Despite Rhode Island’s conference dominance, there are still battles to be won for Atlantic 10 basketball conference tournament seeding

Before the season started, Rhode Island was the consensus choice to win the Atlantic 10. The Rams have lived up to the preseason hype as they sport a perfect 13-0 conference record. With five conference games left, Rhode Island has a four-game lead over St. Bonaventure and Davidson.

But, the battlegrounds for tournament seeding are alive and kicking as the conference regular season winds down. It’s important to avoid being in the bottom four because that would require four wins in four days just to make it to the conference final.

At the top of the conference, finishing in the top four means avoiding the first two days of the tournament. The “double-bye” is one of the most coveted benefits especially in a season where, other than Rhode Island, there has been so much parity.

Bottom Four

Current bottom four teams: George Washington, UMass, LaSalle, and Fordham. All are 4-9.

Team that could slip into that group: Dayton (5-8) has lost four of their last five, including an 18-point loss at George Mason. The Flyers have won only one road game in conference and still have trips to Rhode Island and LaSalle. Defensively, they’ve struggled to guard the 3-point line. In their last five games, the Flyers’ opponents have shot 49-for-106 (46.2%) from long distance.

Defending the three-point line has been a season-long issue. According to KenPom, Dayton ranks 329th in 3-point defense. In their loss to George Mason, the Flyers continuously ran behind screens, allowing Otis Livingston II to shoot 7-for-9 from the three-point line.

Best chance to move up: Out of the group of four, George Washington has the best chance to move even though their remaining schedule looks tough on paper.

The Colonials have won two of their last three, with their only loss coming at George Mason. Despite playing better, the remaining schedule looks rather unfriendly with VCU, Richmond, and Fordham coming to DC along with road trips to Saint Louis and Dayton.

Realistically, the Colonials would have to win two of three at home and at least one of the two remaining road games. A split against VCU and Richmond seems doable. In their first meeting at VCU, the Rams dominated the second half en route to an 87-63 victory but a lot has changed since the Jan. 20 meeting. VCU has lost three of their last four games with their only win coming in overtime against Dayton.

The Spiders have lost three of their last four after boasting a five game conference-winning streak which included a 78-68 home win over the Colonials. Playing them at home could be enough of a spark to get George Washington an upset win.

With the game at Saint Louis being the most difficult, their home date with Fordham and road date with Dayton are “must wins.”

Top Four

Current top four teams: Rhode Island (13-0), St. Bonaventure (9-4), Davidson (9-4), VCU/St Louis/Richmond (7-6)

Team most likely to finish fourth: Saint Louis (7-6) has heated up at the right time of year. The Billikens have won four of their last five. They have a 3-1 record against teams remaining on their schedule. Their only loss came at St. Bonaventure. Coach Travis Ford has done one of the best coaching jobs in the conference. Last season, they finished 11th. This season, they have a realistic chance at getting the double-bye.

Team More Likely To Fall Out: Out of the three teams tied, VCU (7-6) seems to be the most volatile. After back-to-back losses at Dayton and home to rival Richmond, the Rams seemed to turn things around. They embarked on a three-game winning streak with two wins coming on the road against Saint Louis and George Mason. Unfortunately, the good times didn’t last for long as the Rams have lost three of four, including another loss to Richmond.

Part of the problem with VCU is that they have given up 16.8% of their opponents’ points on free throws. That leaves them with a KenPom ranking of No. 281 in this category. The Rams certainly don’t go full-scale “Havoc” like Shaka Smart’s teams and that is part of the frustration with their ranking. Teams will usually accept a certain amount of free throws that come along with their aggression but not having effective aggression and then giving up a high number of free throw attempts leads to massive inefficiency on that side of the floor.

Next: St. Bonaventure's NCAA Tournament resume

Coming into this season, VCU had gone through nine seasons where their worst Adjusted Defensive Efficiency was ranked 98th (2010) in the country. This season, they are 169th in that category. Despite having a measure of success against their remaining opponents (3-0), the Rams poor defense makes them a prime target to fall out of the fourth spot.

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