Even though it has only been a few days since our last edition of Bracketology, the projected field has seen a ton of changes, especially in the middle.
The NCAA Tournament bubble is an awkward place this season. In the past, the “bubble” typically encompasses the last 10-15 teams in consideration for at-large bids. This tends to include the squads projected to be seeded on the No. 10-11 lines as well as those on the outside looking in. This season, though, the bubble extends all the way down to teams on the No. 7 line. Every team is just so close to each that all it takes is one or two key losses to drop a team all the way out of the field.
In order to clean up the bubble and sort everything out, my complete analysis of every team in consideration for an at-large will be coming out a little bit later. Stay tuned for that piece. For now, though, let’s acquaint ourselves with my projected field as it stands today, Feb. 23. While my last projected field was released just a few days ago, there have been a ton of shifts, mainly in the thick of the bracket.
This field is up to date based on the results through Feb. 22.
South Region
(1) Virginia vs. (16) Southern/Savannah State
(8) Florida vs. (9) Creighton
(4) Arizona vs. (13) East Tennessee State
(5) Ohio State vs. (12) Louisiana-Lafayette
(6) Michigan vs. (11) Marquette
(3) Texas Tech vs. (14) College of Charleston
(7) Houston vs. (10) St. Mary’s
(2) Auburn vs. (15) Wright State
Biggest Rise: No forward movement from this region.
Biggest Slide: Creighton Bluejays/St. Mary’s ↓2: Both of these teams felt drops this week closer towards the bubble mainly due to the play of others. While bubble teams snagged wins across the country, it brought light to the recent struggles of these teams. The committee looks at the entire body of work, not recent results, but their resumes just are not up to par to be clearly in the bracket right now. There is still time for both teams to move up but they need to turn things around.
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Nicholls State/Winthrop
(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9) Arizona State
(4) West Virginia vs. (13) Vermont
(5) Kentucky vs. (12) Loyola-Chicago
(6) Nevada vs. (11) Mississippi State/Baylor
(3) Cincinnati vs. (14) Rider
(7) Butler vs. (10) Kansas State
(2) Duke vs. (15) Pennsylvania
Biggest rise: Butler/Virginia Tech ↑2: Butler moved up this week due to their victory over Creighton. That win was so dominant that their predictive metrics increased even more. Their KenPom, BPI, and Sagarin rankings are all in the top-25 nationally and the Bulldogs also have a top-35 RPI. Virginia Tech made the jump because of their win over Clemson. This was a great win over an NCAA Tournament lock and it gave the Hokies their fourth Quadrant 1 win.
Biggest slide: Arizona State ↓1: I did not drop Arizona State very far after their loss to Arizona last week. However, after falling to Oregon on the road, the Sun Devils were forced down a spot. Once considered to be a lock for the Big Dance, ASU now finds itself needing a win or two to assure a bid.
Midwest Region
(1) Xavier vs. (16) Florida Gulf Coast
(8) Missouri vs. (9) Oklahoma
(4) Clemson vs. (13) South Dakota State
(5) Rhode Island vs. (12) New Mexico State
(6) Florida State vs. (11) St. Bonaventure/Providence
(3) Tennessee vs. (14) Belmont
(7) TCU vs. (10) Miami
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Bucknell
Biggest rise: Florida State ↑2: The Seminoles did not play since our last update but moved up by virtue of the teams around them. This is also partly a side effect of reranking all of my teams for each bracket. Sometimes, resumes just look better on a second (or third or fourth) look.
Biggest slide: Missouri ↓2: Losing to Ole Miss earlier this week was not expected. This was a tough loss for the Tigers’ seeding but they should still be safe thanks to having six Quadrant 1 wins on the resume. However, they are now in need of another win to reach lock status.
West Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Wagner
(8) Alabama vs. (9) NC State
(4) Wichita State vs. (13) Buffalo
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) Middle Tennessee
(6) Texas A&M vs. (11) Texas
(3) North Carolina vs. (14) Montana
(7) Arkansas vs. (10) Seton Hall
(2) Purdue vs. (15) UC-Santa Barbara
Biggest rise: NC State ↑2: Three straight wins, even over easy opponents, has NC State trending in the right direction. While teams around them have lost, the Wolfpack has moved up. As long as this continues, NC State will be in great shape on Selection Sunday. Tough matchup with Florida State coming up next, though.
Biggest slide: Alabama/Texas A&M ↓1: These SEC teams have dropped a combined five games in a row. They are still fairly safe in terms of making the Big Dance but they need to clean things up and snag another win to make that a sure thing.
Next: 10 teams that can make a deep run
Next Four In: Miami, Seton Hall, Marquette, Texas
Last Four In: Mississippi State, Baylor, St. Bonaventure, Providence
First Four Out: Utah, LSU, UCLA, Syracuse
Next Four Out: Washington, USC, Louisville, Temple
Thanks for checking in on another edition of Bracketology. Stay tuned for the complete Bubble Watch coming soon and the next projected field coming on Tuesday!