Marquette Basketball: NCAA Tournament hopes are down, but not out
After a crushing loss to DePaul, Marquette basketball finds itself in a difficult spot. Yet, here is why there should still be hope of reaching the Big Dance.
Entering Feb. 24, Marquette basketball was firmly on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. Although included in our Busting Brackets’ Bracketology, this was one of the only 31 projected fields (out of 87) to see the Golden Eagles’ name listed in the field, according to the Bracket Matrix. This warranted them a spot in the First Four Out on the site, which averages seeds of Bracketologists around the country.
However, this was before the team lost to DePaul. Considering the Blue Demons are arguably the worst team in the Big East and hold an RPI of 174, this was a disastrous loss for the Marquette. This represented the Golden Eagles’ first loss outside of Quadrants 1 and 2. For a team sheet that largely relied on a lack of bad losses, this was killer.
For many people, Marquette will be crossed off their lists of competing for an at-large bid. Yet, this should not be the case. Every time head coach Steve Wojciechowski’s squad has been counted out this year, they have returned to the bubble with vengeance. We are only a couple of weeks away from Selection Sunday so the team needs to turn things around in a hurry.
What needs to be done to go dancing?
Quite honestly, the Golden Eagles cannot afford another loss until the semifinals of the Big East Tournament (BET). And that is where we begin when analyzing what Marquette needs to do to in order to go dancing.
The most important thing for the Golden Eagles is to avoid looking too far ahead. They need to focus on every game in front of them at the moment. The next game for Marquette is a road battle against Georgetown. Even though the Hoyas are one of the bottom teams in the Big East standings, they have been competitive all season long. Beating them on the road will be no easy task but it needs to be done.
After that, Marquette will return home to end their regular season against Creighton, who they recently beat on the road. This is yet another must-win if the Golden Eagles, though, if the team wants to build some cushion in the Big East Tournament in regards to going dancing. While beating Creighton at home would help move the needle and even put them back into a few projected fields, they would be far from a lock.
Once reaching the BET, Marquette will likely receive the No. 7 seed, giving them a first-round matchup with DePaul or St. John’s. Considering the Golden Eagles have a loss against each of these teams already this year, this will be yet another tough, must-win game. From there, Marquette’s position on the bubble will be determined by the play of the teams around them.
Going 3-0 in this stretch will help, but only beating Creighton at home (a fringe Quadrant 1 game) will move the needle in any way. This is why Marquette’s potential meeting with the No. 2 seed in the quarterfinals is so important. This matchup will come against Villanova or Xavier, both of whom are top-5 teams in RPI. A win here would garner the attention of everyone around the country and would arguably be the best win by any bubble team in the last week of the season.
Next: Complete Bubble Watch (Feb. 23)
It is a lot to ask, but if Marquette can win their next four games, I believe that they should be in the NCAA Tournament, even with a loss in the BET semifinals. A finish like this would likely move the Golden Eagles into the top-50 of the RPI as well as all predictive metrics. In addition, they could get up to as many as six Quadrant 1 wins in this scenario, pending the play of other teams.
Marquette is obviously in a perilous decision in terms of reaching the Big Dance but it is too early to say that they are completely out of consideration. The Golden Eagles’ bubble has not been popped…yet.