With steady play over the past few weeks, Utah basketball is on the Big Dance bubble. What can the Utes do to hear their name called on Selection Sunday?
With an 18-10 (10-7) record, Utah basketball has inserted itself in the NCAA Tournament discussion. The Utes have won five of their six games and are passing the eye test as of late. Even though the team has been rampantly inconsistent throughout the year, they are hitting their stride at the perfect time. While a loss to USC in their most recent game was a disappointment, Utah remains firmly on the cutline for the Big Dance.
In our most recent Busting Brackets’ Bracketology, the Utes were the first team out of the projected field. This placement did not get any better with their loss to USC but Utah certainly belongs in the discussion for an at-large bid. Larry Krystkowiak’s squad has consistently improved throughout the year and they have a good chance at a 20+ win season coupled with a big to the Big Dance.
As of right now, Utah’s team sheet holds an RPI of 54 while averaging a ranking of 67.3 (combining KenPom, BPI, and Sagarin) in predictive metrics. Quadrant 1 record of 3-6 is far from impressive, especially when considering just a 3-3 record in Q2 games, but there is only win outside of these two groups. According to the BracketMatrix update as of Feb. 25, Utah was the fourth team out of the field while being included in 13 of the 79 brackets on the site.
What needs to happen for Utah to go dancing?
First, they need to end the regular season with a win. The Utes’ final game of the year comes at home against the Colorado Buffaloes on March 3. Colorado has had a solid Pac-12 team this year and is coming off of a victory over UCLA but is still a squad that struggles on the road. In fact, the Buffaloes are just 1-9 on the season away from home.
On the contrary, Utah is 11-3 in front of their home crowd. The trends favor the Utes in this regular-season finale and it should end up in a victory for the home team. However, even if Utah comes away with this win, they have work to do.
Once reaching the Pac-12 Tournament, Utah still has work to do. The good news is that the conference tournament will yield plenty of opportunities for the Utes. It might not seem like it, but the Pac-12 can be a goldmine for quality wins. Even though there are plenty of “easy” opponents in the conference, the Pac-12 has three teams ranked in the RPI top-50 at the moment.
Each of these teams (Arizona, USC, Arizona State) would represent Quadrant 1 wins at the neutral site of the conference tournament. In addition to the three schools already mentioned, two other teams (Washington, UCLA) rank between 50-55 in RPI. If these teams jump into the top-50 before Selection Sunday, then those could also be Q1 wins.
This is important because, if all things go well for Utah, they should get at least one opportunity at a high-quality win. The Utes will get a first-round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament, likely as the No. 3 or No. 4 seed and it will really help if a team like Arizona State or Washington becomes the Utes’ first game.
In addition, this would be a great time to face the top-seeded Arizona Wildcats in the semifinals. Amidst the FBI investigation and the suspension of Allonzo Trier, Arizona is bound to flounder. The committee will understand this but if Utah can snag that Quadrant 1 win as well, it could go a long way.
In order for Utah to have a chance, they need to win at least their next two games. They need to win their home game with Colorado and try to snag a neutral-site Quadrant 1 game in their first game of the Pac-12 Tournament. With two wins, Utah will remain right on the bubble. However, there is a chance that Utah reaches the Pac-12 championship game if they face Arizona and pull off the upset. If that happens, an NCAA Tournament appearance could become more likely than unlikely.
Next: Complete Bubble Watch (Feb. 23)
Conference tournaments are often the place where teams fall out of the projected field or surge in. With opportunities left, the Utes can be one of the teams who climbs into the tournament. Utah still has a lot to prove to determine whether or not they belong in the Big Dance but there is time left. However, that time is ticking…