Duke basketball: Blue Devils need Bagley and Allen to play well together
The return of Marvin Bagley III is a welcome sight for Duke. But now the team has to find a way to get both him and Grayson Allen to play well together. Here’s a way how.
The Duke Blue Devils welcomed back freshman sensation Marvin Bagley III with a 16-point victory over Syracuse at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke’s win made it five straight victories since their road loss several weeks back at North Carolina. They have been able get increased production from senior and team-leader Grayson Allen. His numbers following Bagley’s return is a development that could make or break their season.
In the Duke Blue Devils four games prior to Marvin Bagley’s return, Grayson Allen averaged 15.25 field goal attempts per game, or essentially, an extra four shots compared to his current season average. I assumed that figure would dip back down, even if Bagley came off the bench (which he did). And sure enough in Bagley’s return against Syracuse, Allen attempted nine shots.
Related Story: Wendell Carter named in Yahoo report
Allen’s lack of shot attempts is not an issue against lesser competition. With fellow freshman standout Wendell Carter Jr. supporting Bagley in the frontcourt, Allen is only needed for timely shooting and playmaking on offense. But when Duke plays elite-level competition they need Allen to provide a spark as the de-facto point guard. And that is precisely why I believe this team needs to feature Grayson Allen-Marvin Bagley pick-and-rolls.
Per Ben Falk of Cleaningtheglass.com:
"At Duke most of Bagley’s offense has come either out of post ups and isolations or playing off of rebounds and transition. Notably, Bagley has only taken 17 shots rolling out of the pick-and-roll all season."
That excerpt was from a post published on January 29th, 2018. This was shocking to me, as you would think a big with Bagley’s speed and athleticism would use pick-and-rolls often. Since Bagley seldom works out of the play type, it would represent a secret weapon for Coach K to unleash.
Even if Bagley struggles to set hard screens, his dives to the basket draw heavy attention, freeing up shooters. Allen is shooting 37.3 percent from the 3-point line this season, but through conference play is only shooting 30.3. The screen-roll with Bagley – specifically the high screen and roll, would put tremendous amounts of pressure on the defense.
Teams would likely go under the screen to prevent further breakdowns, choosing to give Allen a look at a 3-pointer. And if the guard fights over the screen, Bagley is probably getting a dunk off of Allen’s penetration. The devastating part is Allen does not even need to be shooting well for the play to succeed. It only takes a momentary mental lapse from the defense for Allen to look to Bagley for a lob pass. Allen gets up 6.9 3-point attempts per game. Because he is a threat to shoot once he pass half court, defenses have to account for him. And if Bagley’s defender is caught tracking Allen’s whereabouts, easy baskets ensue.
Having Allen initiate the pick-and-roll is a much better alternative to Trevon Duval. Despite being an athletic guard with playmaking ability, Duval has struggled mightily this season. He has a turnover rate of 19.4 percent (P.S. that is not good) and gets to the free throw line less than Allen. The biggest advantage of using Bagley as a screener comes if you have at least one guard who can score from all three levels (inside, midrange, 3pt), and Allen fits the mold.
The pick-and-roll often results in the ball-handler having his original defender “in jail”, basically meaning stuck behind him or on his hip. This puts the man defending the screener in the awkward situation of trying to drop to the level of the screen but also corral the guard.
Guarding two players at once – even for just a second is extremely difficult. Opponents will (rightfully so) worry more about Bagley’s finishing at the rim. This will afford Allen plenty of space in the mid-range. And per Hoop-Math.com, Allen is the best two-point jump shooter on the team at 44.7 percent.
Coach K has a system in place, but he has shown over time that he is not averse to change. As Trevon Duval has become especially abysmal in terms of efficiency, Coach K has used Allen as the primary ball-handler, helping him increase his assist percentage.
Next: Is Duke a risky bet for the NCAA Tournament?
As the only upperclassman in the starting lineup, Allen knows what it takes to achieve postseason success. But Bagley’s star power is what makes a NCAA Championship possible this season. The pick-and-roll is the perfect way to combine Allen’s guile and Bagley’s explosiveness into an unstoppable offensive weapon.