Bracketology: Updated projected field and storylines to follow
We are now in the thick of mid-major conference tournaments. With a little over a week until Selection Sunday, here is another edition of Bracketology.
Automatic bid season is approaching. Conference tournaments are heating up across the country and major upsets are about to fall like dominoes. With each new Bracketology update, it seems like there is a change or two within the double-digit seeds as a tournament favorite falls. Of course, the bubble teams from the major conference have been doing their work on the court as well. The issue with their work is that most bubble teams suffered tough losses this week.
Thankfully for those who lost this week, just about everyone else did as well. Considering a lot of shifting could have been done, the field remained relatively similar to that of Tuesday. Resumes are getting more solid and distinctions between teams are becoming more clear.
With that being said, here is what my projected field looks like. This bracket includes the results of the following games on Mar. 2: Michigan State def. Wisconsin, Loyola-Chicago def. Northern Iowa.
South Region
(1) Virginia vs. (16) Hampton/Arkansas Pine-Bluff
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Missouri
(4) Texas Tech vs. (13) South Dakota State
(5) Kentucky vs. (12) New Mexico State
(6) Arizona vs. (12) Providence/Texas
(3) Wichita State vs. (14) Montana
(7) Seton Hall vs. (10) Alabama
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Wagner
Storyline to follow: Can Michigan State snag a No. 1 seed?
This has been a discussion for most of this season. Despite a poor strength of schedule, Michigan State has won game after game this season. They are No. 2 in the AP poll and hold excellent predictive metric ratings. However, the team’s overall resume currently does not fit on the top line. They were a No. 3 seed in the Bracket Preview of a few weeks ago and have gone 5-0 since, albeit all games against non-tournament teams. If the Spartans want to see themselves headlining a bracket, they will need to win the Big Ten Tournament over Purdue or Ohio State while getting some help.
Midwest Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Nicholls State/NC Asheville
(8) Miami vs. (9) Butler
(4) Clemson vs. (13) Buffalo
(5) TCU vs. (12) Loyola-Chicago
(6) Nevada vs. (11) Kansas State
(3) Tennessee vs. (14) Rider
(7) Virginia Tech vs. (10) USC
(2) Purdue vs. (15) Pennsylvania
Storyline to follow: Will Loyola-Chicago hang on?
In their first matchup of the MVC Tournament, Loyola-Chicago looked very shaky. They struggled to put the ball in the basket all game long and narrowly edged out Northern Iowa. Considering this team will miss the Big Dance if they do not win the conference tournament, it is worth asking: was their poor play against the Panthers a sign of an upset to come or will the Ramblers rumble through the rest of the tournament? We will soon find out.
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Florida Gulf Coast
(8) Rhode Island vs. (9) NC State
(4) West Virginia vs. (13) Vermont
(5) Michigan vs. (12) Louisiana
(6) Houston vs. (11) St. Mary’s
(3) Auburn vs. (14) UNC-Greensboro
(7) Texas A&M vs. (10) Middle Tennessee
(2) Duke vs. (15) Northern Kentucky
Storyline to follow: How high can Michigan rise?
With a matchup against Michigan State coming up (assuming Michigan hangs on against Nebraska, game in progress), can Michigan take advantage and move up yet another seed line. For a while, we thought the top three teams in the Big Ten were clearly MSU, Purdue, and Ohio State. Yet, with the Wolverines coming on strong late (as they always do), they belong in the discussion for potentially being a top-four seed in their region. We will find out soon enough if John Beilein’s team has what it takes to move up even further.
West Region
(1) Xavier vs. (16) UC-Irvine
(8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Florida State
(4) Ohio State vs. (13) Murray State
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) Louisville/Baylor
(6) Arkansas vs. (11) St. Bonaventure
(3) Cincinnati vs. (14) College of Charleston
(7) Florida vs. (10) Arizona State
(2) North Carolina vs. (15) Bucknell
Storyline to follow: Who takes the Big East crown?
Xavier and Villanova are the two clear-cut favorites to win the Big East Tournament in Madison Square Garden. One of them is bound to be a No. 1 seed but will the loser also remain on the top line? That remains to be seen. Xavier has been the more impressive team in conference play but they have been eviscerated in both meetings against Villanova. Should the Musketeers and the Wildcats meet in the championship game, it could be a seeding battle for a spot on the top line.
Next: Player of the Year rankings
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Utah, UCLA, Marquette
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Washington, Syracuse, Temple
That concludes this edition of Bracketology. Stay tuned for weekly updates after the weekend!