Bracketology: Updated projected field after Michigan’s conference title
There were a few headlining games on Sunday. With those games concluded, let’s check back with another edition of the Bracketology projected field.
Four more automatic bids were awarded yesterday in an exciting day of college hoops. Leading the way for the day was the Big Ten Tournament Championship game between Michigan and Purdue. In a dominating performance, the Wolverines prevailed to take the automatic bid from the conference. In addition, they clearly look like the top team from the conference heading into March.
Seriously, is there any coach in the country better at preparing his teams for the postseason than John Beilein? It seems like his teams just come on at the right time every single year. After winning the Big Ten Tournament last year, Michigan received a No. 7 seed. They will not be that low this time around.
In addition, we saw the rematch of Cincinnati and Wichita State (regular season). Despite playing on the road, Mick Cronin’s Bearcats came out and clawed their way to victory. Considering the teams split the season series with both wins coming by the road team, it will be interesting to see who comes away with the tournament title. Oh, and let’s not forget about pesky Houston, who could easily spoil the expected title game.
In terms of mid-major action, Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun), Radford (Big South), and Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley) joined Murray State (Ohio Valley) in the ranks of those who have punched their ticket to the Big Dance. For Loyola-Chicago, this will be their first NCAA Tournament appearance since the 1984-85 season when they reached the regional semifinals.
Now, here is how the projected field has shaken out after the results of yesterday. There was not too much movement but there is plenty of action to watch tonight that could make changes in the mid-major landscape.
Projected automatic bids are in bold, finalized automatic bids are bolded and italicized.
South Region
(1) Virginia vs. (16) Arkansas Pine-Bluff/Hampton
(8) Creighton vs. (9) Missouri
(4) Wichita State vs. (13) Buffalo
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) Providence/Arizona State
(6) TCU vs. (11) USC
(3) Auburn vs. (14) UNC-Greensboro
(7) Miami vs. (10) Texas
(2) Cincinnati vs. (15) Wagner
Most important game tonight: SoCon Tournament final
One of the only two conference title games tonight, the SoCon’s automatic bid will be decided between East Tennessee State and UNC-Greensboro. These were the two favorites (according to seed) to win the title and the chalk matchup should be a fun one. For those who have not followed the SoCon, these are two of the best defensive teams in the conference. Do not be surprised if this is a low scoring game in the 50s or low-60s after 40 minutes.
The two teams split their meetings in the regular season with both teams winning in front of their home crowd. Interestingly enough, both games were also double-digit outcomes. Will we see a team pull away tonight or will the neutral site of the tournament negate any advantage heading in? Conference Player of the Year Desonta Bradford of ETSU (voted by coaches) will be the man to watch in this game.
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Nicholls State/Radford
(8) Rhode Island vs. (9) Florida State
(4) West Virginia vs. (13) South Dakota State
(5) Kentucky vs. (12) New Mexico State
(6) Nevada vs. (11) Louisville/UCLA
(3) Tennessee vs. (14) College of Charleston
(7) Arkansas vs. (10) Kansas State
(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Pennsylvania
Most important game tonight: William & Mary vs. College of Charleston
This is not a title game but pits two of the better mid-major teams in the country. Both College of Charleston and William & Mary have dangerous rosters that could pose a threat in the NCAA Tournament to a No. 3 or 4 seed. Out of the Colonial Athletic Association, both squads are hovering around 20 wins on the season and are well above-.500 in conference play.
College of Charleston is the favorite to win this game and the CAA Tournament but did drop their last game of the regular season to this William & Mary team. Do the Tribe have another upset in them or will the Cougars remain the top dog in the conference? College of Charleston’s Grant Riller is one of the nation’s most underrated sophomores and it is time to take note. If not now, you might see him torch your favorite team in the Big Dance. He has averaged 27.0 points over his last seven games on 64.3% shooting (56.1% from three).
Midwest Region
(1) Xavier vs. (16) Lipscomb
(8) Oklahoma vs. (9) NC State
(4) Texas Tech vs. (13) Vermont
(5) Arizona vs. (12) Louisiana
(6) Houston vs. (11) St. Mary’s
(3) North Carolina vs. (14) Montana
(7) Texas A&M vs. (10) Middle Tennessee
(2) Purdue vs. (15) Wright State
Most important game tonight: BYU vs. St. Mary’s
St. Mary’s badly needs this one. The Gaels are on the NCAA Tournament bubble and looked mighty vulnerable in their latest game, a narrow victory over Pepperdine. In order for St. Mary’s to have a shot at an at-large bid, they cannot afford a loss to anyone except Gonzaga. With this being said, the Gaels know this and should be able to come out hot.
Yet, no team in the WCC is better at playing spoiler than BYU. Typically the “third wheel” to the talent pool of Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, the Cougars always have a deep roster with plenty of scorers. Despite St. Mary’s winning both of the meetings between these teams this year, neither was easy and one went to overtime. Does BYU have enough in them to pull off the upset?
The Gaels’ Jock Landale is the obvious player to watch but give BYU’s Elijah Bryant and Yoeli Childs need some credit for the work they have done this season.
West Region
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Iona
(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9) Butler
(4) Clemson vs. (13) Murray State
(5) Ohio State vs. (12) Loyola-Chicago
(6) Florida vs. (11) Baylor
(3) Michigan vs. (14) Bucknell
(7) Seton Hall vs. (10) St. Bonaventure
(2) Duke vs. (15) UC Davis
Most important game tonight: MAAC Tournament final
To some people, the battle for who will be a No. 16 seed is not intriguing but it means the world to these two teams. Fairfield and Iona have poured their hearts out on the court this season and ignoring that would be a shame. The teams will be getting center stage in the final week of the year as they will broadcast on ESPN.
I know that the MAAC is not the greatest conference in the world but it is worth watching. No. 4 seed Iona was not the favorite to win the title prior to the tournament but is favored by 3.5 points in this one. Yet, the No. 6 seed Fairfield is hot. They have already won three games in three days, so who is to say lightning cannot strike once again?
Senior Tyler Nelson of Fairfield is my player to watch. A four-year player with the program who has consistently improved, Nelson is averaging 22.1 points per game this season and is dangerous from anywhere.
First Four Out: Marquette, Syracuse, Alabama, Utah
Next Teams Out: Washington, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Boise State
That concludes this edition of Bracketology. Check back daily throughout the next week for more updates to the projected field. For any questions, reach me at @hardwiredsports.