Bracketology: Updated projected field and St. Mary’s at-large hopes

Monday was expected to be a low-key day in terms of adjustments to the Bracketology projected field. Yet, plenty occurred that caused shifts.

Without any major conference action last night, many expected a less exciting set of college basketball games. That could not have been further from the truth. Mid-major teams took the center stage and put on one awesome stage. There were high-scoring offensive affairs as well as tremendous defensive efforts by teams looking to reach the NCAA Tournament.

Two more automatic bids were awarded last night in the form of Iona (MAAC) and UNC-Greensboro (SoCon). While these games solidified NCAA Tournament bids, one game had huge bubble implications.

In the semifinals of the WCC Tournament, St. Mary’s was unable to handle their business against BYU. The Gaels were never able to contain Yoeli Childs, who erupted for 33 points on 13-for-18 shooting. Considering St. Mary’s resume is far from elite, they sit right on the cutline as of today’s Bracketology. Randy Bennett’s team is in my “Last Four In” as of right now and they will not play another game before Selection Sunday.

Gaels’ fans everywhere need to be rooting for every top team to handle their business instead of allowing bubble teams to snag big wins. In addition, “bid stealers” now pose a huge danger to St. Mary’s. As soon as today, the team needs to root for their rivals in the Gonzaga Bulldogs to defeat BYU.

Projected automatic bids are in bold, finalized automatic bids are bolded and italicized.

South Region

(1) Virginia vs. (16) Arkansas Pine-Bluff/Hampton

(8) Creighton vs. (9) Missouri

(4) Wichita State vs. (13) Buffalo

(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) Providence/Arizona State

(6) TCU vs. (11) Louisville

(3) Auburn vs. (14) UNC-Greensboro

(7) Miami vs. (10) Texas

(2) Cincinnati vs. (15) UC Davis

Games to watch tonight: WCC Championship

I already alluded to this as a huge game. It is unlikely that it will make a huge difference on Gonzaga with a win or a loss but it has major bubble implications. If BYU, a team not expected to be awarded an at-large team, comes out on top, then they will be classified as a “bid stealer.” Bubble teams everywhere should definitely be rooting for the Bulldogs in this one if they want that spot to be available.

East Region

(1) Villanova vs. (16) Nicholls State/Radford

(8) Rhode Island vs. (9) Florida State

(4) West Virginia vs. (13) South Dakota State

(5) Kentucky vs. (12) New Mexico State

(6) Nevada vs. (11) St. Mary’s/UCLA

(3) Tennessee vs. (14) College of Charleston

(7) Arkansas vs. (10) Kansas State

(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Pennsylvania

Game to watch tonight: CAA and Summit League Championships

Championship games are always worth watching. In the CAA, the battle will be between Northeastern and College of Charleston. Both teams went 14-4 in conference play and either one will be a great potential upset team in the first round of the Big Dance. As I talked about yesterday, C of C’s Grant Riller is one of the best-kept secrets in the nation and is well worth watching. On the Northeastern side of this matchup, Vasa Pusica is the man to keep an eye on. C of C won both of the in-season matchups between these two squads but this is definitely the most important meeting.

The Summit League title game also features two of the top teams in the conference. South Dakota (11-3) and South Dakota State (13-1) are underrated teams across the nation who have improved over the past year. Regardless of which team goes dancing, they belong as a No. 13-14 seed and could prove to be a tough matchup in the first round. Leading the way for South Dakota is Matt Mooney, an 18.3 points per game scorer. On the other side of the ball, Mike Daum is one of the most dangerous players in the country. For the year, he is averaging 23.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.

Midwest Region

(1) Xavier vs. (16) Lipscomb

(8) Oklahoma vs. (9) NC State

(4) Texas Tech vs. (13) Vermont

(5) Arizona vs. (12) Louisiana

(6) Houston vs. (11) Baylor

(3) North Carolina vs. (14) Montana

(7) Texas A&M vs. (10) Middle Tennessee

(2) Purdue vs. (15) Wright State

Game to watch tonight: Horizon League Championship

Could Cleveland State be our first major Cinderella story of March? The Vikings, who were just 6-12 in conference play, are coming into the title game after wins over the No. 9, 1, and 4 seeds of the tournament. They might be underdogs by 10 points but that hasn’t stopped them before. Cleveland State is really hot right now and playing great basketball. Wright State, the No. 2 seed in the Horizon League, has gone about its business well so far and is one game away from the NCAA Tournament. Kenny Carpenter (Cleveland State) and Grant Benzinger (Wright State) are the players to watch.

West Region

(1) Kansas vs. (16) Iona

(8) Virginia Tech vs. (9) Butler

(4) Clemson vs. (13) Murray State

(5) Ohio State vs. (12) Loyola-Chicago

(6) Florida vs. (11) USC

(3) Michigan vs. (14) Bucknell

(7) Seton Hall vs. (10) St. Bonaventure

(2) Duke vs. (15) Wagner

Game to watch tonight: Northeast Championship

Led by Joel Hernandez (20.8 points per game), LIU-Brooklyn, the No. 4 seed of the tournament, enters the conference championship game after narrowly defeating Fairleigh Dickinson in their last game. Dating back to the regular season, the team has now won four consecutive games and needs just one more win to go dancing. Their opponent will not be a pushover, though. Wagner, the top seed in the bracket, has rolled in their two games of the tournament. These two teams split their regular season series and this should be a great game. In addition to the previously mentioned Hernandez (LIU-Brooklyn), Wagner’s JoJo Cooper is an excellent all-around player.

NEXT: ACC Tournament preview

First Four Out: Marquette, Syracuse, Alabama, Utah

Next Teams Out: Oklahoma State, Penn State, Boise State, LSU

That concludes this edition of Bracketology. Check back daily throughout the next week for more updates to the projected field. For any questions, reach me at @hardwiredsports.