March Madness: Middle Tennessee shakes up the bubble
An unexpected loss by the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders on Thursday throws the NCAA Tournament bubble into further disarray.
The NCAA Tournament bubble finally appeared to be clearing up, for better or worse. Many teams stuck on the bubble lost on Thursday, not always giving clarity, but at least ending the possibility of further changed incurred by those programs.
Then, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders had to go and screw it all up.
Middle Tennessee was a heavy favorite to win the Conference USA title and secure an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. They lost just twice during the league season, grabbing 24 victories.
But No. 9 seed Southern Miss was able to pull off the shocking upset in the C-USA quarterfinals on Thursday, blurring the bubble picture.
Hypothetically, nothing changes if Middle Tennessee’s fate is substituted for, say, Old Dominion. The Monarchs could go ahead and win the conference tournament, taking the bid that once seemed destined to go to Middle Tennessee; the Blue Raiders, in turn, head to the NIT.
That’s what we’re expecting, based on our latest installment of the bracketology.
Middle Tennessee is firmly on the bubble, though. The range of expectations for their NCAA Tournament hopes range entirely on whose projected bracket one looks at. Their wins aren’t particularly impressive, with the best ones coming against Murray State and the aforementioned Monarchs.
They don’t have bad losses either, though. They played the likes of Auburn, USC, and Miami to extremely close defeats. Their only other two losses before Thursday are to Marshall and Belmont, two teams in excess of 20 wins.
Still, that makes for a combined three losses coming from Quadrant 3 and 4 teams.
Middle Tennessee's three best wins: Murray State, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion.
— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) March 9, 2018
Two Quadrant 3 losses, one Quadrant 4 loss.
If the committee throws the Blue Raiders a bone, the whole bubble shifts down. Teams like Arizona State, Notre Dame, and Syracuse – who need more breaks going their way – have one less spot to compete over.
Next: The problem with conference tournaments
Welcome to March.