Cal State Fullerton Basketball: Pace is key to challenging the Boilermakers

Heading into the NCAA Tournament, Cal State Fullerton basketball will be heavy underdogs to Purdue. Could tempo be the key to a Titans’ upset?

After entering the Big West Tournament as the No. 4 seed, Cal State Fullerton beat Long Beach State, UC Davis, and UC Irvine to secure the conference’s automatic bid. Now the Titans have been given the No. 15 seed in the East Region of the NCAA Tournament and are set to take on the Purdue Boilermakers in Detroit.

Although a Titans’ upset would be one of the more surprising results in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, it should not be out of the question. In fact, while a No. 15 seed has upset a No. 2 seed just eight times in the history of the NCAA Tournament, four of these upsets have happened in the last six years.

With such upset picks becoming more common for the riskiest of brackets, is Cal State Fullerton a good pick heading into the Friday matchup?

When looking at the recent victims of 15-over-2 upsets, there does not appear to be a clear common factor between them. In 2012, Duke and Missouri were strong offensive teams with relatively weak defenses. The 2013 Georgetown team was the opposite, sporting a strong defense that often struggled to score offensively. In 2016, the Michigan Spartans were, by all accounts, one of the strongest teams in the country, on both ends of the floor.

However, when taking a closer look, one factor did link all four teams together: none of them played at a fast tempo. When comparing this to Purdue, the Boilermakers also play a slower game, ranking 219^th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. They rely on the efficiency of Carson Edwards, Vince Edwards, Dakota Mathias, and Isaac Haas to make the most of their limited possessions.

Now, taking a look at the 15-seeds that pulled off the impossible, only Middle Tennessee ranked outside KenPom’s top-100 in adjusted tempo. However, in their game against Michigan State, the Blue Raiders built and sustained leads by periodically pushing the tempo.

These examples show one thing when looking for any upset: when teams move the ball quickly and push the pace of the game, otherwise efficient opponents can become flustered and lose control of themselves.

Now we have to ask, can CSU Fullerton push the pace and allow Kyle Allman, Khalil Ahmad, and Jackson Rowe to score? The simple answer to that question is yes, as the Titans have a more uptempo style of play, sitting at 97^th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo rating.

Next: Ranking the NCAA Tournament 1-68

While I would not pick the Titans to pull off the upset, if you are looking to “call” one of the NCAA Tournament’s more unpredictable upsets, pick the Titans. If they push the pace and Kyle Allman has one of those games, the Boilermakers may go home early.