March Madness: Most-likely upsets to watch for on each seed line

(15) Cal State Fullerton over (2) Purdue

It is never easy to pick these upsets. They are rare and, in most cases, there is no indication before the game that an upset might happen. Yet, Purdue is the type of No. 2 seed that is susceptible to being upset. They may be one of the most efficient offenses in the country but they also play at one of the slowest paces (222nd in the nation).

If Cal State Fullerton is to win this game, they will need to speed up the Boilermakers. This may not lead to a ton of Purdue turnovers but it will take them out of their rhythm. With constant pressure 30+ feet away from the basket, it is hard to settle into a halfcourt offense. The Boilermakers are used to utilizing the 30-second shot clock to their advantage. With adequate pressure, the time they have to score could be reduced to 20, or even 15, seconds.

Of course, Purdue is a better team overall but changing up pace can be the great neutralizer. The other big factor will be play in the paint. Even though Purdue only attempts 29.9% of their shots at the rim, they finish on 67.1% of those shots. In rebuttal, Cal State Fullerton’s interior defense has only allowed opponents to capitalize on shots at the rim at a 55.4% rate.

As for CSFU’s efficiency inside, they take these shots 43.7% of time and are also very efficient at 63.4%. Considering Purdue’s defense is also good inside, allowing just 56.3%, something is definitely going to have to give (All stats found here were via T-Rank).

Runner-Up: Georgia State over Cincinnati