March Madness: Will West Virginia be the next victim of the 5-12 match-up?

Will the Mountaineers pressure defense be able to stifle the red-hot Racers and help them escape the dreaded 5-12 matchup?

By now we’re all aware that the five seed has arguably become the most upset prone tournament team in recent memory.

In fact, twelve seeds are an impressive 19-21 against over the past ten NCAA tournaments according to oddsshark.

While all of the twelve seeds come into the tournament as champs of their respective conference tournaments, Murray State is arguably the hottest of them all.

The Racers punched their ticket to the tourney with a 68-51 victory in the OVC final against Belmont.

Murray State hasn’t fared well historically in their fifteen NCAA tournament appearances, but it is worth noting that two of their three tournament wins have come in their last two appearances in 2010 and 2012.

West Virginia likely played its way out of higher seed by blowing double second-half leads against both Kentucky and Kansas. Two wins that would’ve helped bolster the Mountaineers resume.

This first round matchup will take place on Friday in San Diego. The trip will be slightly longer for West Virginia, but shouldn’t affect one team more than the other.

Breaking Down the Match-up

The first thing to examine about a game involving West Virginia is how the opponent will handle their pressure.

Par for the course by now West Virginia is fifth in the country turning opponents over 16.5 times per game.

As a team, Murray State doesn’t turn the ball over too often averaging 11.7 giveaways a game on the season.

The area of concern is the Racers primary ball handler and leading assist man, Ja Morant is a freshman and has yet to see a preview of the type of pressure he will face against the Mountaineers.

If the Racers can break West Virginia’s pressure, they’ll have a chance in this game as they are one of the better shooting teams in the country.  The Racers are hitting 47.4% of their field goals this season, good for 31st in the nation.

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Prediction: If the Racers can hang around until the last five minutes of this game, they’ll pull off the upset. In the end, the Racers will fair to make it a third consecutive tournament trip with a win and West Virginia will move onto an intriguing game against Wichita State.

West Virginia – 77   Murray State 64