Alabama Basketball: How the Tide can beat Villanova

The Tide finished strong in their win over Virginia Tech. However, they will need to resolve some issues to upset Villanova.

First off, let’s get the bad stuff out-of-the-way. Alabama turned the ball over 17 times in the first round. This is far too many turnovers and they will surely get bounced if they commit anything close to this versus ‘Nova.

Now, onto the good stuff. The Tide shot well from beyond the arc (8-18), they won the rebounding battle, and they attempted 27 free throws. Also, Sexton played well in the second half but was far from his best. His teammates played well, especially John Petty who made 6-8 of his three-point attempts. If Petty stays hot, the Tide are dangerous.

The Tide are certainly capable of defeating the Wildcats. In order to do this, they must excel in a few key components.

Clean the glass

The Tide earned a positive mark in this category in the win versus the Hokies. Villanova is susceptible on the boards so Alabama has another great opportunity to create an advantage. The Wildcats typically take good care of the ball so the Tide can’t rely on winning the turnover battle. However, they can prevent second-chance opportunities by securing defensive rebounds.

Additionally, the Tide can extend their offensive possessions by crashing the glass. They did an excellent job on the offensive boards against VT and they should be able to succeed in this category against Villanova. Win the rebounding battle on both ends and the Tide will position themselves to pull the upset.

Connect from deep

In their losses, the Wildcats struggled to defend and score from the perimeter. Alabama was hot from downtown in the Round of 64 win. If the Tide stay hot versus Villanova, they will definitely make the top-seeded Wildcats sweat. Petty will be a difference maker for the Tide if he shoots as well as he did against VT.

Another trend across Villanova’s losses was a poor shooting performance from beyond the arc. The Tide’s physical guards have the ability to frustrate Villanova’s backcourt. This might translate into a rough night from the field for the Wildcats.

The three-ball will be a major factor in this game for both teams. If Alabama locks down on the perimeter and gets hot from long-range, Villanova will have its hands full.

Get to the line

As I mentioned, the Tide made frequent trips to the line versus VT. In the Wildcats’ losses, they enabled their opponents to earn many freebies. The Tide will help themselves quite a bit by staying aggressive and taking the ball to the basket.

I doubt that Coach Avery Johnson wants or needs my advice, but I think Alabama should operate a slash-and-kick offense. Follow the blueprints of great NBA teams in recent memory like the Spurs and Rockets: layups and threes. The goal for each possession should be an efficient shot (layup or three) or free throws. The Tide can definitely get to the rim and the line. If they accomplish this and the threes are falling, Villanova will be on upset alert.

Ultimately, these keys don’t guarantee victory, but they will almost certainly keep the game close. Which is when an underdog needs to have a closer. Alabama has Sexton, which gives them an advantage late in tight games. (Side note: I’m fascinated to watch the matchup between Sexton and Jalen Brunson.)

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I think Alabama will keep it close, and I think Sexton puts the finishing touches on a stunning upset. I mean, this wouldn’t be the craziest thing we’ve seen in this tournament so far, right?