Marquette Basketball: Projecting Markus Howard’s career stat totals

Marquette Basketball has one of the best scorers in the country with guard Markus Howard. How many buckets can he get throughout his career?

Markus Howard may not look like a prolific scorer at first glance, but Marquette’s diminutive combo guard is on pace to shatter all sorts of scoring records in Milwaukee. Howard has knocked down 193 3-pointers for Marquette in two seasons, which ranks 8th in program history and is over halfway to breaking Steve Novak’s record (354). His 92% free throw rate would also rank second to Novak as would Howard’s 45.1% shooting from 3-point range.

But the real record to watch is Marquette’s all-time scoring mark, which currently belongs to former guard Jerel McNeal (1,985 points).

After leading Marquette’s balanced scoring attack as a freshman with 13.2 points per game, Howard cranked it up a notch in 2017-18 and averaged 20.4 points per night. He posted the best sophomore scoring season in program history by a wide margin and already ranks tied for eighth in career scoring average (17.0 ppg). Through two seasons, Howard has totaled 1,104 points, so he should cruise past McNeal’s mark. The only question is by how much.

Projecting his final numbers

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Andrew Rowsey is graduating this spring and will be taking his 20.5 points per game with him, so Marquette will have somewhat of a scoring void to fill next season. Most of that will be soaked up Howard’s talented teammates, but he could see an uptick in scoring as well. He certainly won’t make another 7-point jump in scoring average, though it’s reasonable to expect anywhere from 21-23 points per game next year. Keep in mind, 29 players averaged over 21 points per game last season in college basketball and only three were from major conference programs: Oklahoma’s Trae Young, St. John’s Shamorie Ponds, and Duke’s Marvin Bagley. It’s hard to consistently score that well against high-major competition, so even if Howard’s scoring production drops slightly, he will still be one of basketball’s most prolific scorers.

If Howard stays healthy for the next two years, he should play between 60-70 more games with Marquette (year-to-year scheduling, conference tournaments, and postseason tournament runs allow for some variability). For the sake of the math, let’s say he plays 65 games as a junior and senior with the Golden Eagles and conservatively averages 20 points per game. That would put him just over 2,400 career points, which seems like an optimistic but relatively fair estimate going forward.

Let’s project the very high-end of his career and give him 23 points per game across another 70 contests with Marquette. That turns into a little over 2,700 career points, which would also be the most points by a Big East player going back to the 1985-86 season (Boston College’s Troy Bell currently leads with 2,632). I do not expect Howard to break Bell’s record, but it’s remarkable that the idea is even within the realm of possibility.

So what’s stopping him from getting there?

Well, injuries for starters. At 5-foot-11 and 175 lbs, Howard is obviously a smaller guy. And while he is a surprisingly talented finisher around the rim, he is often careening into big men and crashing to the floor. One wrong fall – which he nearly suffered against Creighton this year – and Howard could miss substantial time.

Professional basketball could also come calling, though Howard will have to clean up some areas as a junior if he is looking to leave college early. He is one of the nation’s best scorers and shooters, but I doubt the NBA is looking for an undersized combo guard with a questionable handle and limited defensive skills.

He has a little Tyus Jones in his game, but Jones entered the draft as a freshman coming off a national title. He is also three inches taller than Howard and sees the game as a point guard. Howard can shoot over anyone and finish inside but he might need both years as a junior and senior to show enough point guard skills to entice an NBA franchise.

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The path is there for Howard to not only break Marquette records but to also be remembered as one of the best scorers in conference history. After a spree of retired numbers from the program’s glory days in the 1970s, MU has only sent Dwyane Wade’s No. 3 to the rafters in the last three decades. Howard will have the stats to support retiring his No. 0; now he just needs some memorable postseason moments to officially be remembered amongst the blue and gold’s best.

With Sam Hauser by his side, further developments from the rising sophomores, and contributions from top recruit Joey Hauser, Howard and Marquette could certainly make some noise over the next two years.

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