TCU Basketball put together a fine campaign in Jamie Dixon’s second season. Can the Horned Frogs build on last year’s success?
TCU has a checkered basketball history at best. The Horned Frogs have qualified for the NCAA tournament – created in 1939 – just eight total times. They haven’t won a tourney game since 1987 nor have they made consecutive appearances in the big dance since 1952 and 1953.
Even last year, the school’s best season this century by default, still came with its fair share of struggles. The Frogs started 12-0, but only won 9 of their final 21 games. Of those 12 losses, 3 came in overtime contests and another 6 were decided by five points or less. TCU still snagged a six-seed in the tournament due to the Big 12’s incredible depth,but shot under 40 percent in an unsightly first-round loss against Syracuse’s legendary zone defense.
TCU returns 65 percent of last season’s minutes – a solid number – but will have to survive without two of its top players. Vladimir Brodziansky and Kenrich Williams (and Williams’ hair) combined to average 28.2 points, 14.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. Both players contributed defensively as well; Brodziansky finished in the top-10 in the Big 12 in block rate, while Williams ranked amongst the conference’s top-10 in steal rate.
With those two key frontcourt departures, Jamie Dixon’s club will be focused more around its guard play, especially with junior Jaylen Fisher returning from a knee injury.
Fisher averaged 12.3 points and 5.4 assists per game before his season was cut short after 17 games. He is an excellent three-point shooter (40 percent on 208 career attempts) and can rack up steals on the defensive end. Paired with backcourt mate Alex Robinson – who is only an average shooter, but still an excellent creator (9.7 points, 6.1 assists) – and the Horned Frogs should be able to slice apart opposing defenses with ease.
Elsewhere on the roster, Dixon will feature Desmond Bane and Kouat Noi on the wing, both of whom are efficient, knockdown perimeter shooters, Yuat Alok, a well-regarded, 6-foot-11 juco transfer, and Kaden Archie, a top-100 recruit from nearby Midlothian, Tex.
TCU ranked ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency last year, and should be just as good this year, even with the two big departures of Brodziansky and Williams. The question marks come on defense, where the Frogs slipped to 100th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
In Dixon’s 15 seasons as a head coach at Pittsburgh and TCU, 12 of his teams have finished within the top-55 in adjusted defensive efficiency. That should bode well for a defensive surge for the Horned Frogs in 2018-19; however, they don’t have much experienced size remaining on the roster. Of the six players who stand 6-foot-8 or taller, JD Miller is the only one to have ever played in a Division-1 basketball game.
A lack of timely stops killed TCU in close games last season, and it could doom them once again should the defense fail to improve. The Big 12 is absolutely loaded; advanced metrics guru Bart Torvik slotted all 10 conference teams inside his top 80. TCU also put together a respectable non-conference schedule with home games against Florida and Fresno State, a neutral site battle with USC, and a trip to SMU. The Frogs have plenty of Quadrant 1 and 2 opportunities on their slate, which also toughens the path to 20 wins and a .500 conference record.
With a high-octane offense and a vulnerable defense still remaining despite the roster shakeup, TCU’s 2018-19 season could go in a variety of directions. Here’s betting Dixon and a veteran backcourt will take the Frogs back to the tourney, which is something we haven’t seen enough of in Fort Worth.