1. Experience matters
We’ve seen this narrative before in college basketball. Teams with several high-profile freshmen (like Duke) steal all the preseason hype but often fail to deliver on their lofty expectations, while experienced teams that fly more under the radar end up on top of the polls at the end of the season.
Head coach Roy Williams has had rosters loaded with experience since he took over in Chapel Hill (they’re just now starting to get into the one-and-done game) and that will be the case with the Tar Heels again. UNC returns eight players that were part of the rotation last season, and with three top-70 freshmen (including two in the top 25 in Nassir Little and Coby White) entering the fold as well, UNC doesn’t just have depth – they have experienced depth.
The NCAA Tournament has shown us just how much experience means in college basketball in recent years. Five of the last six national champions (Villanova in 2018 & 2016, UNC in 2017, UConn in 2014, and Louisville in 2013) were led by experience-laden rosters full of upperclassmen.
So, yes, Duke has more of the national hype right now, but a roster of freshmen-led stars like theirs has only won one national title (Kentucky, 2012) in the one-and-done era. UNC’s roster has the makeup and the blueprint to win national championship No. 7.