UNC Basketball has traditionally gone the route of four-year scholarship players to win national titles. With five-star recruits coming into the fold, can the Tar Heels keep it up?
The last few years on the recruiting trail has been interesting for Roy Williams. It’s not that he hasn’t gotten top-flight players, he just couldn’t get the “one and done” player. In part, it’s because of the UNC academic investigation that seemed to last an eternity. With all that working against him, Williams still found a way to continue winning.
He’s proven that Ol’ Roy can coach. Think about it. Not only didn’t he have the benefit of getting ‘one and done’s’ (and, yes, I’m discounting Tony Bradley) but he’s done it in an unconventional way. Where a lot of teams have gone to a ‘stretch four’ concept or have gone small, Williams has been playing with two traditional bigs until Luke Maye came on the scene.
But what might be the overriding factor for Williams’ is an experienced roster. If you look at all of Williams’ National Championships, it’s come with an experienced group. The ’05 team was anchored by three juniors and a senior. The ’09 team started three juniors, two seniors and was in the Final Four the year before. The ’17 team was a carbon copy of the ’09 team. Three juniors, two seniors, and a Final Four appearance the year before.
Looking at this year’s team, it doesn’t resemble any of the previous Roy Williams National Championship teams. Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson, and Kenny Williams will give the Tar Heels some experience but if they want to be playing on the final weekend, they will need heavy contribution from two top-flight freshmen.
Coby White and Nassir Little will need to grow up pretty fast if the Tar Heels want to compete with UVA and Duke for the ACC title. If Seventh Woods can stay healthy, White will be eased into running the offense. That might be the best thing for White. Though the Heels offense encourages pushing up the ball, there are going to be times when the offense will need to be executed in the half court down the stretch. It’s what has hurt the Tar Heels in the losses to Duke over the last few years.
There’s a good chance that Little will be a “one and done”. He was the MVP of both the McDonald’s All-America game and the Jordan Brand Classic. ESPN’s Jeff Borzello thinks Little could be in play for the number one pick in the draft. His contribution will have to grow faster than White’s.
Last season, the Heels had stretches where they were very poor defensively. Both White and Little can help the Heels on that end along with the return of Woods. Those three along with Kenny Williams could make the Heels a tough match on the defensive end. If properly motivated, it could be one of Roy’s best perimeter defensive teams since he’s come to Chapel Hill.
Of course, the development of the bigs will also play a part in the Tar Heels’ success. With Maye holding down the four spot, Garrison Brooks, Sterling Manley or Brandon Huffman will need to take a step up. Last season, teams exploited UNC’s inexperience inside especially when they played a physical brand of basketball. Exhibit A would be the NCAA tournament loss to Texas A&M. The Aggies exploited the Tar Heels inside and it opened up the court for the rest of their weapons.
The Tar Heels faithful are very happy to be back in play for big-time recruits. Just recently, UNC got a verbal commitment from Five Star recruit Armando Bacot.
But, UNC’s national championship success has come with experience, especially Final Four experience. Maye and Woods are the only two players on the roster who played in the 2017 National Championship game. Even then, they only played 10 and 3 minutes respectively. There isn’t a lot of March success on the roster.
But you can never count out Ol’ Roy. Despite heartbreaking losses like ’16 National Championship, negative recruiting during the academic abuse investigation and his bout with Vertigo, Williams has persevered. Since his return to Chapel Hill, he has more wins, Final Four appearances and National Championships than that guy 7 miles down the road. Williams’ toughness can never be questioned and, if he wants to hear “One Shining Moment” on the last Monday of the season, his young players will have to mimic him.