America East Basketball: Preseason rankings for 2018-19

3. UMBC

UMBC is going to live in college basketball lore forever as the first No. 16 seed to win an NCAA Tournament game, but don’t expect a repeat from the Retrievers this year.

Star guard Jairus Lyles, who hit the game-winner against Vermont to punch UMBC’s tournament ticket and dropped 28 points in that win over Virginia, is gone, as is point guard K.J. Maura. Those two played the most vital roles for head coach Ryan Odom’s squad down the stretch and those losses will certainly be felt in a big may.

The good news is that the three other starters return, headlined by forwards Joe Sherburne and Arkel Lamar, who will keep the Retrievers near the top of the conference. Their defense will be good again but they’re not going to be able to replace Lyles’ scoring – something that will really hurt them in a conference that figures to be very competitive at the top.

2. Vermont

The Catamounts were poised to make their second-straight trip to the NCAA Tournament after dominating the America East regular season, and many thought they were a good candidate to make a run in March. However, their dreams were dashed by that jumper from Lyles, and this 27-win team lost in the first round of the NIT.

Two-time America East Player of the Year Trae Bell-Haynes is one of three starters Vermont will have to replace, all of whom averaged at least 11 points per game. Junior Anthony Lamb (14.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg) will take over as the go-to guy as head coach John Becker will be forced to rely on a number of inexperienced players.

Lamb will be right at the forefront of the conference player of the year conversation and could average 20 points per game, which will likely be enough to push Vermont into the No. 2 spot in the conference. But, their lack of depth and experience will cause them to lose out to Hartford.

1. Hartford

Our Jason Burgess provided a more detailed breakdown of why Hartford is poised to be the fifth team to win the conference in the past decade, and I agree with him.

The Hawks took a major step forward in 2017-18 by winning 19 games – the school record for wins in a season since the program moved to Division I – and made a postseason tournament (CIT) for the just the second time in program history. Head coach John Gallagher has the program moving in the right direction, and five of their top seven players from last year return to give them even higher expectations.

Hartford is a guard-dominant team but 6-8 forward John Carroll (15.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg) is the team’s best and most important player, leading the Hawks in both points and rebounds last year. Their starting backcourt of Jason Dunne, J.R. Lynch, and Travis Weatherington will keep Hartford competitive, yet they need Carroll to take yet another step forward and become a true star if they’re going to win the conference.