NCAA Basketball Mailbag: Expectations for Louisville, Jahvon Quinerly, and more

What should we expect in Chris Mack’s at Louisville? Which top freshmen may return to school? We discuss this in this week’s NCAA basketball mailbag.

College basketball is finally back, and with it comes the first mailbag of the season!

A number of questions many had in the preseason have already been answered. Yes, Duke’s freshmen really are that good. No, Virginia doesn’t suddenly suck after losing to UMBC. Yes, Kansas is probably gonna win the Big 12 for the 15th consecutive year.

Of course, plenty more are still out there waiting to be answered and more will arise as the season goes on – and that’s why we’ll be posting these every week throughout the course of the year.

Do you have a college basketball or NBA Draft question you want to have answered? Join the conversation on Twitter @brauf33. Thanks as always to those who contributed this week. Let’s get into it.

I did a full preview on Louisville that has more in-depth analysis, but I think it will go better than a lot of people think. This program is certainly undergoing a transition and they don’t have the overall level of talent we’re used to seeing from them, yet there’s something to be said for finally having some stability.

Mack is a good coach who knows how to get the most out of his players and will have them sniffing around the NCAA Tournament bubble much like they were last year. However, they’ll need the marquee wins they didn’t get last year to make it, and their ability to get those marquee wins will depend on someone (likely V.J. King) becoming a legit go-to player.

Quinerly will be fine. He’ll be heavily criticized all year because, as good as Jay Wright and Villanova‘s culture is, he’s not currently at the level Jalen Brunson was last year.

Everyone seems to expect the Wildcats to pick up right where they let off without experiencing a dropoff. That’s ludicrous considering they have to replace four of their top six scorers on last year’s championship team, three of whom were first-round picks with the other being the National Player of the Year.

Villanova has good players on their team but they’re not at that level. It’s important not to let Quinerly become a scapegoat if the Wildcats struggle a bit.

Now, as for Quinerly himself, he’s extremely skilled but isn’t a superior athlete. It will take him some time to adjust to the college game (as is the case with most freshmen) because he can’t compensate athletically but he’s very instinctive, has a high basketball IQ, and is a good shooter. You’ll love him sooner rather than later – but don’t expect him to be Brunson right away.

Quinerly is a good candidate even though this draft class is incredibly weak at point guard, but there will be players that were ranked higher than him that return for their sophomore seasons. I think we could see someone like Kentucky’s E.J. Montgomery (ranked No. 9 in the 247sports Composite) and Vanderbilt’s Simi Shittu (No. 11) return to school.

Montgomery simply may not a get a chance to really show what he can do. Kentucky’s frontcourt is loaded and head coach John Calipari opted for the experience of Reid Travis and P.J. Washington ahead of him in the rotation. He likely won’t play more than 20 or 25 minutes a night and, with questions about this weight (only 225 pounds at 6-10) and raw skill set, he may not get a chance to answer those questions.

Further working against these two is 1) the number of big men who were taken early in the draft last year, lessening the need for them, 2) the NBA devaluing big men and 3) the number of quality big men who returned to school last year. Daniel Gafford and Jontay Porter will be first-round picks along with the likes of fellow freshmen Zion Williamson, Bol Bol, Charles Bassey, and French star Sekou Doumbouya.

Lower-than-expected draft projections may cause both Montgomery and Shittu to return next season.

Not having Watkins, who is one of the best defensive bigs in the country, really hurts Penn State. It’s still unclear how long he’ll be out as he deals with some mental health issues. The team is certainly better with him – I think they’re an NCAA Tournament bubble team with him (and potentially a lock if Lamar Stevens proves to be an All-Big Ten performer). If they don’t have him, it’ll be hard for Penn State to achieve anything of substance this year. They simply don’t have the depth to talent to make up for that kind of extended loss.

This was 100 percent from a bot but it’s a good question so let’s play it. The answer?

Nobody.

It is strange to see that but it hasn’t happened – and likely won’t happen as long as The Splash Brothers participate in the three-point contest. That said, Zach LaVine (already a slam dunk champion) has a decent chance I think to become the first…unless Zion Williamson wins a three-point shootout because he’s winning any dunk contest he enters.