Atlantic 10 Basketball: Treacherous journey to get multiple bids this season

Hot takes and knee-jerk reactions are all the rage with the sporting world which is why I’m here to offer up a question after just one week of college basketball in the books: Is Atlantic 10 Basketball already in panic mode?

Just a week into the budding season, the members of the A10 haven’t quite found the joy that a new year brings.  Despite claiming six unbeaten teams at the time of this being written–Davidson, Saint Louis, St. Joes, VCU, Duquesne & Dayton–none of those teams have claimed an eye-catching victory.  In fact, the only win the A10 currently has against a KenPom Top 100 team is Joes’ season opening victory over Old Dominion, KenPom’s 94th ranked squad.

At the moment, KenPom has the A-10 ranked as the 9th best conference according to their metrics.  To add some perspective to this, the gap between the A10 and the 8th ranked conference, the Mountain West, is 1.63 rating points.  This gap is larger than the 1.42 points separating the MAC from the A-10.

The big difference?  The MAC, historically a one-bid league, is currently ranked 12th in KenPom.

Reality dictates that the Atlantic 10 is taking on water.  From a strict statistically driven stand point, the A10 is closer to being lumped together with the Missouri Valley Conference and Mid-American Conference than it is anyone else.  This is a far cry from where the collective stood over the past five years.

In 2013, the A10 sent five teams to the NCAA Tournament, more than the ACC and SEC.  2014 saw six teams, a stellar season for the conference, punch their tickets.  These six teams named were more than the American, SEC and Big East and on par with the Big 10, Pac 12 and ACC.

Fast forward to November 2018 and the A-10 has suffered losses to Houston Baptist, Lafayette, American and Stony Brook.

By nature I’m not a pessimist, but the fact I’m already in Bracketologist mode and having to look at potential “Good wins” and “Bad losses” before I’ve even had any of my Grandma’s famous Chocolate Cream Pie on Thanksgiving is bizarre to me.

With A10 play still far away, the oil-and-water dynamic seems to be pretty settled in and now the top-tier squads have to carry their weight even more so.  To give you a look at the road ahead, let’s map it out with who the A10 heavyweights face in the KenPom Top 100:

VCU: Virginia (4), Texas (27), Wichita State (77), Temple (85), Old Dominion (94)

Saint Louis: Florida State (12), Butler (30), Houston (39), Seton Hall (40), Oregon State (84)

Rhode Island: West Virginia (14), Providence (59), Harvard (96)

Davidson: North Carolina (3), Northeastern (76), Wichita State (77), Temple (85)

St. Joes: Villanova (6), Loyola Chicago (67), Temple (85)

Dayton: Auburn (10), Mississippi State (20), Butler (30)

The projected record for the A10 in these games is 6-17 with the biggest win being St. Joes over Loyola Chicago, a team who might not even make the tournament themselves.

Currently the landscape makes the A-10’s three bid year in 2017-18 seem so far gone and similarly makes the heralded 2014 limo-ride to the Dance seem akin to a tall tale we hear at bed time.

Despite bursting with stupendous individual talent and some of the better coaching minds in College Basketball, it’s very possible that the 2018-19 campaign is one that the A10 fan base won’t look back on fondly.