NCAA Basketball: Why Furman will struggle to earn at-large bid despite early success

Furman has notched two of the more surprising wins against respected teams in the first month of the season. Will it be enough to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament?

Furman has established itself as one of the biggest surprises in college basketball thus far.

After an eventful, last-minute victory against Loyola-Chicago earlier this month, the Paladins notched a marquee victory Saturday against Villanova. The latter is already one of the most shocking wins in the nation this season.

For most teams, such victories would result in consideration for an at-large bid come March. But for Furman, a prototypical mid-major team, this is an unlikely result.

The two wins will likely be the Paladins’ best ones all season. For a schedule with 30 regular season games, it’s unfortunate because this could be the best Furman looks.

Of course, the Paladins are only partially at fault for this conundrum. As a mid-major team, scheduling makes all the difference. And while their non-conference slate looks above-average, conference games could kill their resumé.

Furman’s schedule ranks 55th amongst the entire 353 teams across the nation. The Paladins already conquered two of their toughest games, with the last being against a currently-ranked LSU team Dec. 21.

If Furman enters that matchup undefeated, and they register yet another road victory against a top-50 team, it could get interesting. However, the unpredictability and small talent gap between schools in the Southern conference suggest the Paladins won’t see an at-large bid.

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Last year’s Middle Tennessee squad acts as a perfect example of this issue. The Blue Raiders earned solid victories early in the year. They also played a few capable teams in non-conference play, such as Miami and USC.

Yet, when the team seemed like a lock to earn the automatic bid from the C-USA tournament, it floundered. Middle Tennessee’s fate was left to its resumé, which didn’t acquire an NCAA tournament berth.

Furman is playing a more difficult schedule than the Blue Raiders had last season. Nevertheless, between now and March, the Paladins have essentially one more game to buff up their resumé.

Meanwhile, other major conference teams have opportunities to enhance their standing in RPI and NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) nearly every game during conference play.

While this is a pessimistic take on Furman’s season, there is still a chance fans see the Paladins in March. But if the players and coaches leave their March Madness fate in the hands of the committee for an at-large bid, it doesn’t look great.

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Thus, Furman should take care of business in the conference tournament, just like Middle Tennessee couldn’t do a year ago.