3. Box out and secure rebounds
Northern Illinois is one of the better mid-major teams on the glass. Mostly led by Lacey James (7.5 boards) and Levi Bradley (7.1 boards), the Huskies do a superb job seeking out missed shots on both ends of the floor. In fact, they rank in the top-75 of the nation both in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. With this said, it is reasonable to expect that NIU will attempt to crash the glass with ferocity in this matchup.
In order to counteract this, Butler’s big men will need to consistently find a big body to box out. Joey Brunk and Nate Fowler might not average a ton of rebounds individually (both at 4.5 boards per game) but they do a great job clearing out lanes for guards to snag missed shots. This has led to Kamar Baldwin (6.0 boards) and Paul Jorgensen (4.5 boards) leading the team in rebounding to this point in the year. This trend of Butler’s bigs keeping opponents off the glass will need to continue.
Through eight games each, NIU ranks 29th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate (36.1% of possessions) while Butler stands at 172nd in defensive rebounding rate. If the Dawgs are able to keep the Huskies off the glass and away from second-chance opportunities, then they will be in great shape.
On the whole, Butler’s ability to win with either its offense or defense could be the difference in this game. Northern Illinois is rated as one of the worst defensive teams in the nation and hopefully the Dawgs can take advantage.
Final Prediction: Butler Bulldogs: 74 – Northern Illinois Huskies: 62.