NCAA Basketball Mailbag: Best team, Louisville’s ceiling, and more

What are the biggest NCAA Basketball and NBA Draft questions you have this week? We answer them all in this week’s NCAA Basketball Mailbag.

NCAA Basketball season is entering its annual December lull as teams break for final exams but there have been enough high-profile matchups and close games to keep us entertained.

We got our first taste of conference action this week thanks to the Big Ten, and it delivered. There were close games all over the board with a few, like Wisconsin, making major moves up the rankings while others, like Iowa, proving to be a little bit overrated.

Michigan and Gonzaga, two of the top five teams in the country, both narrowly avoided upsets by pulling out two-point victories over unranked Northwestern and Washington, respectively. Those two are clearly some of the very best in the country but those games reminded us of the unpredictability that makes college basketball so great.

Are the Zags still the unequivocal best team in the country after looking sluggish against the Huskies? And where do the Wolverines belong in that conversation? We tackle all of those questions and more in this week’s mailbag.

Do you have a college basketball or NBA Draft question you want to have answered? Join the conversation on Twitter @brauf33. Thanks as always to those who contributed this week.

To the questions!

This is tough because Louisville has already improved so much from where they were at the beginning of the season and I think they’ll continue to improve greatly as the year goes on. They’re definitely an NCAA Tournament team but I think, right now, their ceiling is one tournament win simply because of their lack of top-end talent.

That could change if Jordan Nwora continues to step up and improve but that’s what I’m looking at right now – and that’d be a great season for the Cardinals.

I think they’re a top-three team. Right now, they have the best resume of anyone with those dominant wins over Villanova, North Carolina, and Purdue by a combined 63 points. They were tested by Northwestern this week pushed through in a close game on the road, which was also nice to see.

I have a ton of confidence in them right now because of who they are defensively and what we know they can do offensively. Another Final Four run is certainly not out of the question.

The short answer? Yes.

The long answer? Right now, you have to say yes because they beat Duke and have looked the part. But I’d argue they’re the most talented experienced team, meaning they essentially got a head start over other top teams because they were already used to playing together. Doing what they’re doing without Tillie is impressive, but Duke will be better in March than the version they were when they played the Zags. Other teams will improve like that, too.

Still, I don’t think you can definitively say anyone is better than Gonzaga. I still have some questions about them – guard play and not turning the ball over against good teams (looking at you, Josh Perkins) – but they’re absolutely a one-seed.

Buffalo is probably the best other mid-major team (as shown by their ranking) and I think is the most dangerous. I think they have a great chance to post a terrific record in the MAC and have real second-weekend potential.

However, Radford has a chance to challenge them for best record. The Highlanders are legitimately good with road wins over Notre Dame and Texas already on their resume, and they play in a weak Big South.

Speaking of good mid-majors, Mike Daum is likely going to lead South Dakota State to the NCAA Tournament again and have them capable of pulling an upset.

He’s doing what Mike Daum does, averaging 23.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. However, he does not have a legit shot at winning National Player of the Year because of the lack of competition the Jackrabbits play. He won’t be able to prove himself on a national stage against other top players until the tournament.

Dort is fantastic. I think he can continue to be a star for Arizona State and turn into a very good rotation player in the NBA. Oladipo is a pretty good comparison but I really like Stadium’s Jeff Goodman’s comp of Marcus Smart. I think that’s probably more of who Dort is.

Porter is going to be a lottery pick and potentially a top 10 pick. Just how high he goes will depend on his production in Pac-12 play (scouts won’t like it if he doesn’t produce against mediocre competition) but there’s no doubting his athleticism and physical tools. In a draft class that lacks a lot of depth, he should feel pretty comfortable with his draft standing.

I think Gafford‘s status is right where it was last year – a borderline lottery pick but definitely a top 20 or 25 pick. Teams love his athleticism, rebounding, and shot-blocking, and there’s a need for those kinds of bigs in the league. I don’t know if he has the upside of players projected to go in the lottery but he’ll be one of the first bigs chosen.

That’s tough. It looked like they might get it against Villanova (which would’ve been nuts) but couldn’t hold on.

I’d say that if they can’t beat Alabama A&M on Dec. 21, the Explorers might be looking at a historically terrible season.