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Illinois State vs. UCF: 2018-19 college basketball game preview, TV schedule

By Jason Burgess

HARTFORD, CT - MARCH 11: A.J. Davis #3 of the UCF Knights, B.J. Taylor #1 and Tanksley Efianayi #0 react after losing 70-59 during the semifinal round of the AAC Basketball Tournament against the Southern Methodist Mustangs at the XL Center on March 11, 2017 in Hartford, Connecticut. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
HARTFORD, CT - MARCH 11: A.J. Davis #3 of the UCF Knights, B.J. Taylor #1 and Tanksley Efianayi #0 react after losing 70-59 during the semifinal round of the AAC Basketball Tournament against the Southern Methodist Mustangs at the XL Center on March 11, 2017 in Hartford, Connecticut. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /
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An intriguing non-conference game takes place Friday night in Orlando as the UCF Knights host the Illinois State Redbirds. Here is a preview and prediction for the game.

TV Schedule: Friday, December 21, 7:00p.m. ET, ESPN3

Arena: CFE Arena, Orlando, Florida

One of the favorites in the American, Central Florida, hosts the team many thought could unseat Loyola-Chicago in the Missouri Valley, the Illinois State Redbirds on Friday night in an intriguing non-conference matchup.

The 9-2 Knights have been on a roll so far this season, after splitting their first two games of the season, beating Rider to open the year but then being upset by Florida Atlantic 80-79, coach Johnny Dawkins’ team has won eight of their last nine, including four straight wins over, Saint Joseph’s, Western Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, and Alabama. Their only loss in that span was an overtime loss to Missouri 64-62.

Illinois State is 7-5 having righted their ship, snapping a three-game losing streak with an overtime win over Cleveland State on Sunday. After beginning the year 6-2, including an overtime win over BYU, Dan Muller’s team met defeat at the hands of San Diego State, Illinois-Chicago and Ole Miss. This game with the Knights is Illinois State’s final tune-up before they begin play in the Valley.

The Knights are an experienced squad that is led by their backcourt of senior B.J. Taylor and junior Aubrey Dawkins, while the frontcourt is anchored down by the 7-6 senior Tacko Fall. Fall averages 10.6 points per game while, Taylor and Dawkins combine for nearly half of the team’s 76 points, with 33.1. They are supplemented in the backcourt by junior Terrell Allen who chips in with 8.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and a team-leading 4.9 assists.

Defensively, the Knights allow opponents to shoot just 38.2% from the field and one would think that with a guy of Fall’s length in the middle that he makes things more difficult for opponents at the rim. While that is true, as the Knights are 13th in the country in blocks per game, led by Fall’s 3.55, which is 3rd nationally, they are 13th in defensive rebounds per game despite the fact that Fall grabs just 6.5, which is just .4 ahead of sophomore Collin Smith’s 6.1 for the team lead.

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So far this season Illinois State has relied heavily on its four players that average double-digit points, led by 6-6 senior guard, Illinois native, and MVC Player of the Year candidate Milik Yarborough. Yarborough leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists with 18.5,8.4, and four respectively. He has led the team in scoring six times and in all three categories four times this season.

A couple of junior guards join Yarborough in the backcourt, Josh Jefferson and Zach Copeland. Jefferson is 6-2 and averages 12.3 points, 2.1 assists and a steal per game and at 6-4 Copeland nets 10.5 points, while pulling down 3.3 rebounds, and dishing out 3.5 assists. The frontcourt is led by senior forward Phil Fayne, the 6-9 Fayne is 2nd on the team in scoring (15.8) and rebounding (6.2), aside from the top four, no other player on the team averages more than 6.5 points per game. Although senior guard William Tinsley provides productive minutes off the bench with 6.1 points and 4.5 rebounds per game.

The three-point shot is a key weapon for the Redbirds but it has been hit or miss this season, they rank 35th in the country in three-point makes per game but just 147th in three-point field goal percentage. In their wins, Illinois State has shot 36% from deep, compared to just 33% in their losses. If shots are falling from deep, they have a shot in this one.

The key matchup in this game will be between the senior guards Taylor and Yarborough.  Both players shoot the long ball at a 41% clip, but Yarborough has the edge in points 18.5 to 17.7, rebounding 8.3 to 2.5, and assists 4 to 2.5. He also has the edge in efficiency with a 51% shooting percentage, but Taylor can explode at any time, ask Georgia Southern who saw Taylor hang 35 points, four rebounds, and five assists on Dec. 11.

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Prediction: The home cooking and rebounding edge for the Knights will prove to be too much for Illinois State. Central Florida wins this one by seven or more.