Busting Brackets
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Bracketology 2019: Duke, Kansas headline the projected field

By Lukas Harkins

DURHAM, NC - DECEMBER 08: RJ Barrett #5 of the Duke Blue Devils goes up for a dunk against the Yale Bulldogs in the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium on December 8, 2018 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)
DURHAM, NC - DECEMBER 08: RJ Barrett #5 of the Duke Blue Devils goes up for a dunk against the Yale Bulldogs in the second half at Cameron Indoor Stadium on December 8, 2018 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) /
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Kansas Basketball
LAWRENCE, KANSAS – NOVEMBER 16: Vick #24 and Dotson #11 of the Kansas Jayhawks wait. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /

Non-conference play for NCAA basketball is coming to a close. How does the bracketology projected field for the Big Dance shake out right now?

It may seem like the new NCAA basketball season started just yesterday but we are already over a month into the new campaign. And with non-conference schedules coming to a close around the nation, teams are starting to solidify their positions in the national rankings. Of course, there will be seemingly endless shifts in the coming months but programs have already made their early-season pitch for being invited to the NCAA Tournament. And this means that Bracketology Season has begun!

As a brief background on the bracketology scene, this will be my fourth year releasing updates throughout the season. I will release weekly updates (always on Friday) to the bracket from now until the start of February when I start to publish twice per week (add Tuesday). As I have done in the past, I will also update the bracket daily during the final week before Selection Sunday. This will also be my fourth year on the Bracket Matrix, where I am ranked at 22nd of 127 in the “bracket veterans” category (3+ years in the matrix).

Okay, well that’s enough background on setting up the series for this coming season so let’s break down a few of the changes from last year to this one in terms of projecting the bracket. Most notably, the NCAA did away with the old RPI system this offseason in favor of the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool). And while this tool has been criticized plenty in the opening month of the season, it is always exciting to see new numbers to analyze. It is also important to mention that after a wacky first couple of weeks, the NET rankings have stabilized to about what most expect.

The new NET rankings played a fairly sizable role in this projected field and I also placed a reasonably heavy weight on predictive metrics. The eye test also played a factor but, as I cannot read the committee’s mind regarding their individual eye tests, this is mostly an opinion-based section and therefore is not weighted all that heavily in my mind.

So, with all of this out of the way, let’s dive into the first in-season projected bracketology field of the year! (Reminder: My bracketology updates are meant to predict how the committee would select/seed teams right now, not where I personally believe teams should be seeded as my criterion might be different.)

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