Virginia Basketball has already been known for having one of the best defenses in NCAA Basketball. But could the Cavaliers be even better this year?
Last season, Virginia Basketball was the No. 1 overall seed and finished No. 2 in KenPom. Despite the shocking 1st round upset to UMBC, I still believe the Cavaliers were a top 5 team in the country. Virginia, currently 11-0, is ranked 4th in the AP Poll and 2nd in KenPom. Due to a subtle tweak to their defense, I think Virginia may be better suited for a deep tournament run this season.
(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and are up to date through the games completed on Dec. 29.).
Virginia’s defense is allowing three-point attempts (3PA’s) at a lower rate than last season.
Per usual, Virginia’s defense was great last season, ranking number one in the nation according to KenPom. However, there was one factor that was slightly concerning: the Cavaliers’ defense was 283rd in 3PA rate (opponents shot a lot of threes against them).
Virginia has been towards the top of the country the last few seasons in 3P% defense (9th last season). So there was reason to believe an abundance of opponent 3PA’s wouldn’t hinder the Cavaliers at all.
But as Ken Pomeroy breaks down here, the best way to evaluate a teams “3-point defense” is to look not at their defensive three-point percentage (3P%), but at how well they limit 3PA’s. Basically, defensive 3P% comes down to luck much more than one would initially think (once the shot goes up, the defense has no control whether it goes in or not). So the best way to defend against three-pointers is to prevent the opponent from taking these shots all together.
(^This is only a brief explanation. The fact that teams like Virginia have consistently posted elite defensive 3P%’s suggest there is more than just luck at play (they force teams into difficult threes, etc.). Still, defensive 3PA’s seem to be the best way to measure 3-point defense).
College basketball teams are constantly improving at shooting the three, so allowing a lot of 3PA’s can sometimes backfire. Virginia fell prey to this last season in its 1st round loss to UMBC. The Retrievers took 50% of their shots from three and made 50% of them (12-24 from downtown).
It’s still fairly early in the season, but thus far, it looks like Tony Bennet’s team has made an effort to limit opponent 3PA’s more than last season.
Last season, 40.8% of opponent shots were threes (283rd in nation). This season, that rate is down to 35.7% (90th). Virginia still has an elite defensive 3P% (1st in country at 24.4%), but limiting 3PA should help limit the risk that reared its ugly head against UMBC.
It’s possible that the added emphasis on defending three-pointers has left the interior of the defense a bit more susceptible (this could partially explain the slight decline in defensive 2P%). But in an increasingly “three-point centric” college game, this is a trade off that will likely be in Virginia’s favor in the long run.
It’s important to note that if anything, this is a very subtle tweak. I don’t think Tony Bennet has changed the way he coaches defense in any substantial way. But I also believe limiting 3-point attempts a bit is on the radar of the Cavaliers coaching staff, especially after UMBC’s 12-24 three-point showing ended their season.
Regardless of how or why it happens, I think the trend of limiting 3PA’s is good for Virginia’s tournament prospects.