Loyola-Chicago Basketball: Why the Ramblers shouldn’t be counted out in 2019

Loyola-Chicago Basketball hasn’t looked as good as last season’s Final Four team. Should the Ramblers be counted out in the Missouri Valley Conference?

Loyola had a magical run to the Final 4 last season, and there was reason for optimism heading into this season as well. Although the Ramblers graduated three of their top six contributors, (Aundre Jackson, Donte Ingram, and Ben Richardson) the other three were back for more:

-Senior guard Clayton Custer

-Senior guard Marques Townes

-Sophomore center Cameron Crutwig

Loyola received the 26th most votes in the preseason poll, and there was debate as to whether the Ramblers deserved more or less respect. But regardless, it seemed reasonable to expect Loyola to be among the top mid-major teams in 2018-19.

Midway through the season, Porter Moser’s squad has had its share of struggles. It’s 9-6 with losses to Furman, Boston College, Nevada, Ball St., Maryland and Saint Joseph’s.

Loyola’s highest profile game was a nationally televised matchup against Nevada. The Ramblers fell 79-65 on their home court, and the game probably wasn’t even that close. I believe many, including myself, started closing the door on Loyola’s chances of repeating as a Cinderella.

But I’m starting to back-track on that a bit. Although it won’t make any headlines, Loyola is coming off likely its best win of the season on the road against Drake. The Ramblers won 85-74, and the “Big 3” of Custer, Townes, and Crutwig played likely their best collective game of the season (25, 30, and 23 points respectively).

I wouldn’t be surprised if Loyola gains momentum as it continues through conference play. Even with the slow start, Loyola is still the favorite to win its conference and end up back in the “madness” it thrived in last season.

And the more I looked into the stats, the more I realized this Loyola squad might be more similar to last season’s than I initially realized. Could the winning formula still be there?

1. First off, the “computers” still like the Ramblers. The Ramblers entered the tournament last season ranked 41st in KenPom. As of Jan. 7, Loyola is currently ranked a very respectable 68th.

2. “Elite defense” was the team’s calling card last season, and this has carried over. The Ramblers’ defense finished last season ranked 17th in KenPom; it’s at 20th this season.

3. The offense has fallen off quite a bit from 63rd to 171st, but there might be reason to believe it has a higher upside than the ranking indicates.

After Loyola made its run last season, I glanced over its statistical profile to see if there was anything that stood out. One thing interested me outside of their high defensive ranking. The Ramblers’ offense, although only ranked 63rd, was ranked 7th in Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG%).

This indicated the Ramblers were among the most efficient teams in the country in terms of shooting the ball and putting it in the basket (taking into account the extra value of the three-pointer). So why only 63rd in offense then? Loyola was average-below average in the other areas of offense: turnovers, offensive rebounding, getting to the line, and making free throws.

Maybe I’m reaching, but isn’t shooting the ball and putting it in the basket efficiently the core of basketball? If one had to choose between a bunch of “so-so” ranked offenses with their individual flaws, wouldn’t one with the profile of the Ramblers seem most appealing?

I decided to not just listen to my own logic and actually look into it a little. The below chart shows the 5 teams (including last season’s Ramblers) that fit the “Loyola profile” (going back to 2001-02). This is the list of every team that was:

1. In the NCAA tournament
2. Had a Top 25 defense
3. Had a Top 25 EFG%
4. Had an EFG% Rank # >= 25 “better” than its Offensive Rank #(“Difference” = Offensive Rank # – EFG% Rank #)

Maybe I shouldn’t take anything from this chart, but the fact another Cinderella (George Mason) had the “Loyola profile” was definitely interesting to me. There’s only one team fitting the profile this season, and unsurprisingly, it’s the Ramblers again (currently 15th in EFG%).

Odds are Loyola won’t be making another miraculous run this season, but it’s not as if a Cinderella has never struck twice (Butler; 2010 & 2011). Maybe Loyola’s run was largely unpredictable. But maybe there is something about their statistical profile is such that will make them dangerous come March. Especially if their offensive ranking improves a bit, I wouldn’t count out the Ramblers.

(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and are up to date through the games completed on Jan 7).