Big East Basketball: 5 most telling stats of the 2018-19 season so far

No one can figure out the Big East Basketball conference yet. Here are five stats that may offer league clarity going forward.

Big East Basketball is three weeks into conference play, and it is still nearly impossible to sort out the daily madness in the standings. Here are five key statistics to keep an eye on as we move closer to March.

Player of the Year Race

Oh, back injury gods – please be kind in our time of great need.

Shamorie Ponds and Markus Howard – who have both been forced out of game action this month with back issues – are the only two Big East players since 1992-93 to average at least 20 points, 4 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game while shooting 40 percent from three. If both players remain healthy, the Big East could see one of the best Player of the Year duels in the country.

The tiebreaker could come down to team success, in which case, Howard and Marquette (15-3, 4-1) have the early advantage. However, the Johnnies did destroy the Golden Eagles in Queens to open conference play, led by Ponds’ 26 points and five assists, while Howard shot just 2-15 with four turnovers. St. John’s makes its return trip to Milwaukee on Feb. 5.

Lacking a top-tier team

According to KenPom, Villanova rates out as the best team in the conference, sitting at 21st in the nation. Since KenPom began tracking data in 2002, the Big East has always had landed at least one program in the top-20 by year’s end. In fact, over the previous 17 seasons, the average rank of the best team in the Big East has been 4.4, including four instances where the conference finished with the top KenPom team in the nation.

This certainly is not your older brother’s Big East, even as Marquette and Villanova gradually slide up the AP Poll.

Morass in the middle

Despite missing its usual title contender, the Big East remains wildly competitive. T-Rank projects Marquette and Villanova to finish 12-6 in conference play, but envisions the other eight teams all landing between 10-8 and 7-11.

St. John’s, Seton Hall, and Butler seem like the best bets to escape the middle of the pack into tournament contention, but we’ve seen all three struggle to stack consistent performances together throughout the season. The Big East has sent at least half of its teams to the Big Dance for four straight years; a fifth consecutive season could be in peril in 2019 if three more teams fail to separate themselves over the next seven weeks.

Guard play rules the day

After many of the conference’s top big men graduated last spring, I noted that the Big East would be lacking its typical elite inside presence in 2018-19. That’s not overly surprising in the pace-and-space era of basketball, but it is still a bit visually jarring to see the Big East stat sheet littered with pint-sized stars. According to T-Rank’s PRPG! stat (explained here), 22 of the 43 Big East’ers who have posted at least a 2 PRPG! are guards, including the entire top five.

Nationally, of the players listed at 6-foot-9 or taller, Georgetown’s Jessie Govan is the only Big East center inside the top 25. Flashback to 2010, and the Big East had six such players in the top 25. How times have changed.

Take the over in all Creighton games

The Bluejays had straightened out their defensive issues over their previous three years under Greg McDermott, but Creighton has taken a massive step backwards this season following the departure of two-time defensive Player of the Year Khyri Thomas. The offense is as strong as ever – CU ranks first in the nation in offensive effective field goal percentage – yet the defense has cratered, and fields the second-worst defensive effective field goal percentage among all high-major teams (only 5-11 California is worse).

Next. Marquette flashes diversity after Howard injury. dark

CU has allowed the three highest points per possession among Big East teams this season (1.38 at Nebraska, 1.36 vs. Gonzaga, and 1.33 vs. Marquette), and has been absolutely torched in its four-game conference losing streak. The superior offense can cover a lot of flaws, but against quality opponents, the turnstile defense has been too much to overcome. Creighton is 0-7 in quadrant 1 games this season and has hit the over in 9 of its last 13 games.

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