Virginia looks to strengthen its lead in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings when the Cavaliers travel to hostile territory at Duke on Saturday evening.
TV schedule: Saturday, January 19, 6:00 pm ET. ESPN.
Arena: Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C.
A top-five tilt is set for Saturday night in an epic Atlantic Coast Conference encounter that has critical ramifications for the league race.
No. 1 Duke (14-2, 3-1), coming off a shocking overtime loss at home this past Monday to unranked Syracuse, will host undefeated and No. 4 Virginia (16-0, 4-0) at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Not only did the Blue Devils fall in stunning fashion to the Orange, they also took a major hit when freshman point guard Tre Jones injured his shoulder in the game’s first few minutes. Unfortunately, Jones is out indefinitely, and that’s a huge blow for Duke. Jones is terrific at taking care of the ball, and he’s also one of the best perimeter defenders in the country, according to many analysts.
Now, the Blue Devils still possess a ton of offensive firepower, particularly as it relates to freshmen forwards Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. My main concern for Duke moving forward is who will step in and try to fill Jones’ shoes at point guard.
This is especially important as the Blue Devils welcome the Cavaliers to town. UVA, which along with No. 2 Michigan are the final two unbeaten crews in Division I men’s basketball, is an absolute monster on defense. The Cavaliers suffocate their opponents by allowing only 51.7 points per contest, good for No. 1 nationally.
What makes Virginia’s current roster so tough is that the Cavaliers have a more potent offense in 2018-19 as compared to other recent stanzas. For example, UVA dominated No. 9 Virginia Tech, 81-59, in Charlottesville, Va., earlier this week.
That the Cavaliers generated 80-plus points against a strong Hokies defense illustrates simply how imposing Virginia is, and why I believe that the Cavaliers are poised for a deep March Madness run.
By virtue of crushing VT, combined with Duke’s setback to Syracuse, UVA is in sole possession of first place in the ACC. Should the Cavaliers emerge victorious versus the Blue Devils, Virginia would find itself up two games over Duke. I fully recognize that there is a long way to go until the regular season concludes, but that’s significant, without question.
Furthermore, if the Cavaliers end their week with wins against two top-10 groups, including one on the road, then UVA makes a legitimate case for the No. 1 ranking in the AP top-25 poll come Monday afternoon.
At present, the Blue Devils have a NCAA NET rating of No. 4, while the Cavaliers are No. 1. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index says that Duke, on its own turf, possesses a 56.8 percent chance of prevailing.
It’s the Blue Devils’ high-octane offense battling Virginia’s stifling defense. I foresee an extremely tight affair, but, due to Jones’ absence, I’m going with the Cavaliers in this one.
Prediction: Virginia 77 – Duke 74