Washington Basketball: Why the Huskies should be viewed as contenders

Although the Pac-12 has been down this season, Washington Basketball could emerge as the one bright spot. The Huskies could have the best chance to make some noise in March.

The Pac-12 Conference has received a lot of criticism for its poor performance thus far this season. However, the conference is going to receive at least one bid, and I think there’s one team that’s capable of making real noise in the NCAA Tournament: the Washington Huskies. Even beyond the team’s 7-game winning streak, here are two reasons to buy into the Huskies.

1. Minutes Continuity

KenPom ranks teams in terms of “minutes continuity.” This refers to the percentage of “returning minutes” a team brings back from the prior season. Washington ranks #1 in this metric, as their returning players accounted for 88.7% of the team’s minutes played last season. Having a high “minutes continuity” doesn’t guarantee success, (Wichita St was #4 last season and fell in opening round of tourney) but I’ve always been inclined to like these teams, as they have a lot of experience playing together. All else equal, wouldn’t you bet on the team with a higher “minutes continuity?

(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and are up to date through the games completed on Jan 21.).

2. A “Different” Zone Defense

Mike Hopkins is in his second season as Washington’s Head Coach after serving as Assistant Coach at Syracuse. He’s instituted a zone defense that I’ve assumed was modeled after Jim Boeheim’s patented Syracuse zone. But when I looked at Washington’s statistical profile, I realized that it wasn’t as similar to Syracuse’s zone as I had initially thought.

(I touched on Syracuse in a recent article if interested).

But first, there were a few things that did look similar. Like typical Syracuse defenses, Washington’s zone defense is defending 2-pointers well (13th best). The “negative similarity” is that the Huskies, like Syracuse, are giving up a lot of offensive rebounds (327th rate). This has been typical of zone defenses. One explanation is that since defenders are not guarding a “man,” it’s harder to find someone to box out when a shot goes up.

The main difference between the Boeheim and Hopkins zones thus far?…the degree to which both defenses allow three-point attempts. The Syracuse zone has typically made it really hard to score in the paint. This has resulted in good 2-point percentage defenses and more three-point attempts.

As already mentioned, Washington has also made things tough inside the arc for opposing offenses. But for some reason, this hasn’t translated to its opponents shooting a ton of threes. The Huskies have the 56th lowest 3-point attempt rate in the country.

Allowing a lot of three-point attempts isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The best Syracuse defenses have allowed of threes, but only because these were the only shots opponents could get. Consequently, a lot of these threes were forced, and thus didn’t go in at very high percentages.

But all else equal, I’ll take the zone defense that defends 2-point shots well and doesn’t allow a lot of 3PA’s over the zone defense that defends 2-point shots well and allows a lot of 3PA’s. A defense only has limited control over its defensive 3-point percentage. When a shot goes up, there’s nothing else it can do, so a defense that allows a lot of threes is in danger of facing an opponent that gets hot from downtown.

I’m still not sure how Hopkins has cracked the “good 2-point defense, low 3PA’s” code, but I think it makes Washington’s defense really interesting going forward. Even if the Huskies had just a normal zone defense, it would still have a chance of causing problems for a potential tournament. It seems to have worked for Syracuse in the past, as many teams just aren’t used to facing zones.

Washington’s been beating up on a poor Pac-12 and still doesn’t have a “great” win this season. But if you’re looking for NCAA tournament sleepers, the Huskies would be a good place to start.