Bracketology Bubble Watch: Where do teams stand relative to the field?
Southeastern Conference
Firmly in the field: Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State
Some perspiration: Auburn, Ole Miss
Double the deodorant: Florida, Alabama.
Tennessee Volunteers (17-1, 6-0 SEC)
NET: 5 | KPI: 5 | SOR: 5 | BPI: 5 | KP: 5 | Sag: 6
Q1: 4-1 | Q2: 4-0 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 6-0
It is hard to argue against Tennessee as one of the top teams in the country. While playing a reasonably challenging schedule, the Vols have put together a ridiculous record with their only loss coming in overtime against Kansas at a neutral site. They have not lost since that game (Nov. 23) and have taken down some elite teams along the way. Most notably, not many teams in the nation have a better win than over Gonzaga at a neutral site. Tennessee is a national title contender and everyone better believe it. They are experienced, battle-tested, confident, well-coached, and extremely talented.
Kentucky Wildcats (15-3, 5-1 SEC)
NET: 8 | KPI: 12 | SOR: 11 | BPI: 10 | KP: 9 | Sag: 9
Q1: 3-2 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 4-0
After underachieving in the first half of the season, Kentucky has seemingly turned a corner. They have won their last five games, including back-to-back over Auburn and Mississippi State, and it is once again time to take them seriously as a national title contender. With a developing offense to go with lockdown defense, BBN has to be happy with how their team is playing at this point in time. They do, though, have a tough test coming up with Kansas coming to town. Watch out for the ‘Cats.
LSU Tigers (15-3, 5-0 SEC)
NET: 12 | KPI: 8 | SOR: 23 | BPI: 35 | KP: 25 | Sag: 29
Q1: 3-2 | Q2: 4-1 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 3-0
Another team that started out the year slow, LSU has definitely picked things up during the last month. The Tigers have won eight consecutive games and they remain undefeated in conference play so far. With Tremont Waters and Naz Reid leading the way, this is a difficult team to match up with and one I don’t want to see in March. Their quality metrics might not do a ton of justice to how well they are playing as they belong in the top-20 nationally. I am a firm believer that LSU has the potential to land a protected seed.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-4, 2-3 SEC)
NET: 31 | KPI: 20 | SOR: 22 | BPI: 29 | KP: 28 | Sag: 35
Q1: 2-1 | Q2: 5-3 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 4-0
Mississippi State should be fairly safe with regards to the NCAA Tournament. They hold five wins over the KenPom top-50 and only one bad loss (at South Carolina). Despite starting conference play a bit slow, the Bulldogs should be just fine. Given how difficult it is to win the SEC, Mississippi State might not land a protected seed but they should be in strong shape to land a seed in which they will be favored in the first round (No. 5-8 seed). They are entering their toughest stretch of schedule coming up.
Auburn Tigers (13-5, 2-3 SEC)
NET: 25 | KPI: 39 | SOR: 39 | BPI: 14 | KP: 18 | Sag: 17
Q1: 0-4 | Q2: 5-1 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 4-0
Auburn’s resume is an…interesting one. Thanks to a highly-efficient offense, the Tigers rank extremely high in all quality metrics but their resume is fairly weak on the whole. They only hold one win over the KenPom top-50 (No. 43 Washington at home) and have lost two a team ranked outside of the top-100. Given this, you would think Auburn belongs much lower than they are in my projected fields. I think Auburn is much better than their resume but they need to prove that in the coming months. They are an NCAA Tournament team for sure but their seeding might be lower than you would expect
Ole Miss Rebels (14-4, 4-2 SEC)
NET: 32 | KPI: 30 | SOR: 27 | BPI: 47 | KP: 37 | Sag: 42
Q1: 2-4 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 6-0
Ole Miss has dropped two of its last three games but their fans shouldn’t be worried. The Rebels rank pretty well in all metrics and hold strong wins over Baylor, Auburn, and Mississippi State. Additionally, they have not suffered a single loss to teams outside of the KenPom top-50. With three of their next four games at home, Kermit Davis‘ team should be able to get back on track and secure a single-digit seed in the Big Dance.
Florida Gators (11-7, 3-3 SEC)
NET: 37 | KPI: 58 | SOR: 63 | BPI: 28 | KP: 26 | Sag: 33
Q1: 1-6 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 5-0
Florida’s resume is the trickiest to analyze in the entire nation. On the whole, their resume is very weak. They have just one win over a KenPom top-50 team (No. 44 Butler at home) but they also lost to that same team at a neutral site. They are wildly inconsistent offensively and that has led to a weak record with one bad loss tossed in. With that said, one would think Florida would be far from making the Big Dance but their predictive metrics are an insane buoy. They rank in the top-35 in all quality metrics and therefore deserve heavy consideration for the tournament. If they find a way to start winning games with more consistency, they will dance.
Alabama Crimson Tide (12-6, 3-3 SEC)
NET: 41 | KPI: 25 | SOR: 47 | BPI: 46 | KP: 47 | Sag: 48
Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 6-0 | Q3: 1-3 | Q4: 3-0
Alabama, on the whole, has pretty pedestrian computer numbers for a bubble team and they own one huge win over Kentucky at home. As of right now, the Crimson Tide are sitting right on the NCAA Tournament bubble but they will have plenty of opportunities coming up to bolster their resume. Their key to making the tournament, in my opinion, is playing well over the next two weeks. Alabama will play four of their next six games on the road and will hopefully be able to steal a win or two away from Tuscaloosa.