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Villanova Basketball: Why the Wildcats won’t repeat as champs in 2018-19

By Jacob Zinkula

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 27: Cole Swider #10, Eric Paschall #4, Phil Booth #5, and Collin Gillespie #2 of the Villanova Wildcats watch the game from the bench against the Seton Hall Pirates in the second half at the Wells Fargo Center on January 27, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Villanova defeated Seton Hall 80-52. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 27: Cole Swider #10, Eric Paschall #4, Phil Booth #5, and Collin Gillespie #2 of the Villanova Wildcats watch the game from the bench against the Seton Hall Pirates in the second half at the Wells Fargo Center on January 27, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Villanova defeated Seton Hall 80-52. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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Villanova Basketball has been hot as of late, but don’t expect the Wildcats to make another deep tourney run this season.

After a rough start to the season that included a blowout loss to Michigan and upsets at the hands of Furman and Penn, Villanova Basketball is back to dominating the Big East. Coming off an 80-52 shellacking of Seton Hall, the Wildcats are 7-0 in the conference. But don’t be fooled. This isn’t the same Villanova team as years past, and I don’t expect them to make a deep run come March.

Here are three reasons why:

(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and are up to date through the games completed on Jan 27.).

1. Defending champions haven’t fared well in the tournament. 

Winning back-to-back championships is obviously difficult, but going back to 2003 (as far as KenPom goes back), defending champs have historically underperformed in the tournament. This happened as recently as last season with North Carolina getting upset by Texas A&M in the round of 32.

Among national champions that made the tournament the following season, 10/11 teams (91%) did not make it past the sweet sixteen. 5/11 (45%) didn’t even make it past the round of 32. And it’s not as if these defending champs were all losing early as 8 -10 seeds. For example, both two seeds fell in the round of 32.

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2007 Florida was the only team to make it past the sweet 16 and also managed to repeat. But although a strong March performance from a repeat champ is obviously possible, this evidence suggests it’s not likely. I looked into whether defending champs with high “experience” or “minutes continuity” (KenPom stats) fared better since these teams would more closely resemble the “championship squads.” This was inconclusive, however. (Note: experience and continuity stats on KenPom only go back to ’07/’08).

2. The Big East isn’t that great this season. 

A casual college basketball fan could probably tell you that the Big East is a little down this season, but the “computers” back this up as well. As good as Villanova has been lately, it’s still only ranked 20th in KenPom, and only three other teams from the conference are in the top 50 (Marquette 33rd, Butler 45th, Creighton 47th). So even if Villanova is dominating the Big East, they’re doing it against only so-so competition. Here’s how the Big East has ranked among all conferences over the last few seasons (per KenPom).

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3. The Wildcats are too reliant on 3-point shooting.

Villanova attempts 52.9% of their shots from three, the 3rd highest rate in college basketball. The Wildcats attempted threes at a rate of 47.5% (12th) on their way to a title last season, but it felt like they weren’t nearly as reliant on the three. Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Mikail Bridges, and Omari Spellman were all really good 3-point shooters (which is why they shot a lot of them), but they were also very capable of scoring inside the arc. They wouldn’t all be in the NBA right now if all they could do was spot up and shoot.

If Villanova faces a team in the tournament that really limits opponent three-point attempts, they could struggle offensively. In losses to Michigan and Penn, the Wildcats faced teams that are 3rd and 5th respectively at just this. Consequently, the Wildcats shot 3-15 (20%) and 9-26 (34.5%) from three.

dark. Next. Biggest takeaways from this past week

Jay Wright and Villanova have proven they’re capable of “March magic,” so Villanova can’t be counted out. But for a variety of reasons, I’d bet against the Wildcats rediscovering that magic this season.