Bracketology: Why you should expect a “Mad March” in 2018-19

Due to a strong crop of “Cinderella” teams, the NCAA Tournament could be especially crazy this season. Bracketology is already showing us why.

It seems like every season that college basketball analysts talk about there being “no great teams” and therefore, we should expect a lot of upsets in March. Well, I’m coming at things from the other direction. I think the quality of “Cinderella teams” is better than its been the last few seasons, and THIS is why there could be more upsets this year.

I went back to 2012-13 and looked at how many teams seeded 12 or worse were ranked in the KenPom Top 50 and/or the Top 100. Having more of these teams would theoretically result in a  better crop of Cinderella teams, right? I then used our Busting Brackets Bracketology to look at how many of these teams there are projected to be in the upcoming tournament.

(*per Busting Brackets Bracketology and KenPom)

I found that relative to the last few seasons, the opportunity for upsets should be really strong. There are three projected “12-seeds or worse” teams currently in the KenPom top 50, more than there’s been since 2012-13.

Lipscomb: 48th in KenPom, projected No. 12 seed

Murray St: 46th in KenPom, projected No. 12 seed

Florida/Baylor (First 4): 26th and 44th in KenPom, projected No. 12 seed

There are also eleven “12 seeds or worse” in the KenPom top-100, also more than there’s been since 2012-13: Vermont, South Dakota St, New Mexico St, Drake, Northern Kentucky, Hofstra, Yale, and VCU.

How’d the Cinderella’s do in 2012-13, a seemingly promising Cinderella year per the above chart? Among the three “Top 50” teams, 12-seed Oregon went to the Sweet 16, 12-seed Ole Miss went to the round of 32, and 13-seed LaSalle advanced to the sweet 16.

Among the top-100 teams, 12-seed California advanced to the round of 32, along with 14-seed Harvard. Additionally, 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast, who barely missed the chart due to their No. 105 ranking, advanced to the sweet sixteen. Was it the craziest tournament ever? Probably not, but I think the chart provides as good a way as any to get a sense of the “Cinderella potential” of a given tournament.

Maybe the bracket will go all “chalk” this year. But if things end up a bit crazier than usual, the quality of “Cinderella teams” will likely be a big reason why.