NCAA Basketball: Seeking out title contenders by the numbers

4. Preseason AP Points

Identifying that there is, in fact, a strong correlation between points received in the preseason AP poll and performance in March is not a good look for the “rankings don’t matter” crowd. Of all the potential variables I considered, this is easily the most qualitative measure that actually has some relevance. The points in the Associated Press poll are based on votes placed by eligible AP voting members, typically sportswriters who are evenly disbursed geographically. Every voting member gets to rank teams from 1 to 25 – teams earn 25 points for being ranked 1st in any given ballot, all the way down to 1 point for being ranked 25th in any given ballot.

Obviously, the Associated Press is going to get some teams wrong in their preseason poll. However, the teams that were ranked at the beginning of the season that were actually able to validate their ranking with their season-long performance tend to extend that success into March. Even though some bias implicitly exists in the ballots of most members, these sportswriters have a general vibe of the teams that have the most talent and the best chance to be successful.

Here is an example to illustrate the relevance of the AP preseason poll. Of the 20 teams that have played in the 10 national title games since the 2008-2009 season, guess how many didn’t receive a single vote in the preseason AP poll? The answer is zero. Thus, if anyone is looking for a team that flew completely under the radar in the preseason to make a deep run, they should be at least a little wary.

The 2018-2019 preseason AP poll, including the top-25 and others receiving votes, can be found here.