NCAA Basketball Mailbag: Morant over Barrett, Michigan State’s title hopes and more

What are the biggest NCAA Basketball and NBA Draft questions you have this week? We answer them all in this week’s Mailbag.

It’s hard to believe the calendar has already flipped to February, huh? And while the polar vortex might be freezing half the country, things are heating up in the NCAA Basketball world with the postseason now firmly in sight.

There has been plenty of bubble and resume talk already, but February is when those debates reach a fever pitch.

What matters more – more good wins or fewer bad losses? How do you judge a mid-major with a lack of good wins but a high NET ranking? Can some mid-majors steal at-large bid from Power 6 schools?

The top eight teams in the country have really separated themselves as national championship contenders, yet one of them suffered a significant blow this week when Michigan State announced that star guard Joshua Langford would not return this season.

How does that impact the Spartans? We’ll touch on that in this week’s NCAA Basketball Mailbag, but we start with another debate – who will be the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft behind Zion Williamson?

Do you have a college basketball or NBA Draft question you want to have answered? Join the conversation on Twitter @brauf33. Thanks as always to those who contributed this week.

What do you think about Ja Morant starting to gain momentum to be drafted over RJ Barrett? I would personally pick RJ number 1 even over Zion, because I see much much much less risk and still a very high reward. I think he has everything he needs to grow into a superstar one day, mentally and physically. – Dan Stacey (@DanielStacey31)

I think it’s a real possibility but only in certain situations. For instance, the Suns have a big need at the point guard position and I fully expect them to take Morant over Barrett should they end up with the No. 2 pick. On the flip side, if a team like the Cavs end up with the No. 2 pick, they have a bigger need on the wing (especially considering they used a top 10 pick on Collin Sexton last year).

I love Morant as a prospect but him going No. 2 over Barrett is entirely dependent upon who gets that pick.

Underrated is definitely LSU big man Naz Reid. He can shoot, handle the ball, and has showcased good vision while being 6-10 and 250 pounds. I think he has all the tools NBA teams look for in today’s big men.

In terms of overrated, I probably look at Indiana’s Romeo Langford right now. There are a few good wing players in this class who I think are better (particularly Keldon Johnson). He’s inconsistent defensively, not a good shooter and, while great at finishing around the rim, isn’t an elite athlete so he may have trouble getting there as much as he’s used to.

No. Michigan State has been playing without him for about a month now and have maintained a high level of play without him, but there’s no doubt they needed him to be healthy in order to win a national title. He simply takes them to another level with his versatility and scoring. The Spartans will still win a few games in the tournament, in my opinion, but his injury leaves them short on depth and on wing production. Those factors will eventually bite the Spartans when they face more complete teams later in the NCAA Tournament.

UNC has the potential to be the most versatile team in the country. Nassir Little and their shooters allow them to play small ball, Garrison Brooks and Sterling Manley can play big, and they can play up-tempo or in the half court. Obviously, they’ve struggled to do any of the four on a consistent basis this year, but on paper, that’s what they have.

We’re starting to see them fulfill some of that potential lately with them winning eight of their last nine games. Coby White has been playing under control and at a high level on a nightly basis while Little has turned a corner in his own right, having now grasped UNC’s system on both ends. Those shooters we mentioned before (Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson, Kenny Williams) are also out of their early season slumps.

That has corrected a lot of what ailed them early in the year but a majority of these recent wins have come over lesser teams (excluding NC State and Virginia Tech). We’ll find out over the next two weeks if they’re a title contender or not. They play at Louisville on Saturday and then are at home against NC State, Miami, and Virginia.

I don’t think they’re going to be on the bubble as they have in year’s past, but there’s no doubt that Duke win will likely bump them up a seed line from where they would be otherwise. The Orange are projected to be in the 7-10 seed range, meaning they could face off with a one-seed or two-seed in the second round of the dance. If that does end up being the case, I know no top seed is going to want to see them pop up in their region.

I think there will be, and not in the someone-other-than-Gonzaga-won-the-WCC-Tournament-so-they-got-two-teams-in sense. That’s the case for the WCC, the Mountain West with Nevada, and the MAC with Buffalo, but a few other mid-major teams have legitimate at-large hopes.

San Francisco passes the eye test while Lipscomb has a very high NET ranking and both Wofford and UNC-Greensboro are earning some at-large consideration with their impressive resumes as well.

I think one of those three teams will get in as an at-large and surprise some people. Personally, I’m hoping it’s San Francisco because I think they’re one of the best 40 teams in the country and have the potential to pull off an upset for two in the tournament.

Let’s go with the Dons for now but keep an eye on all three of those teams, especially Wofford. The SoCon has four quality teams in them, Furman, East Tennessee State, and Wofford, giving each of those teams opportunities for significant wins that teams in other conferences will not get.

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