North Carolina vs. Louisville: 2018-19 college basketball game preview, TV schedule
By Neil Adler
A delightful tilt is taking place on Saturday in the Atlantic Coast Conference, with North Carolina looking to exact revenge at Louisville.
TV schedule: Saturday, February 2, 2:00 pm ET. ESPN.
Arena: KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky.
Atlantic Coast Conference competition is nearing the half-way mark, and there’s a battle of top-15 teams coming up on Saturday afternoon. No. 9 North Carolina (16-4, 6-1) is traveling to No. 15 Louisville (16-5, 7-1), in an encounter featuring two of the hottest units in the ACC.
The Tar Heels have captured four wins in a row, while the Cardinals have won six-consecutive contests. Coincidentally, Louisville’s success streak began when the Cardinals absolutely blasted UNC, 83-62, on Jan. 12 in Chapel Hill, N.C. That rout, by the way, amounts to the worst home loss for legendary head coach Roy Williams in his 16 stanzas at the helm of the Tar Heels.
In that affair, North Carolina got dominated on the glass, which rarely happens to the Tar Heels. UNC also shot a paltry 34.5 percent from the field, including an abysmal 13.6 percent from beyond the arc. Obviously, if the Tar Heels want to triumph on Saturday, they have to connect near, or above, their season average of 37.9 percent from downtown.
There are a lot of interesting dynamics to this match-up. For one, so far in the 2018-19 campaign, North Carolina is an impressive 6-1 on the road. Conversely, Louisville, guided by first-year head coach and former Xavier boss Chris Mack, is a stellar 12-1 at the KFC Yum! Center. Something has to give.
This duel has a bunch of ramifications for the ACC race and the Big Dance. As it presently stands, the Cardinals are tied for first place in the league with No. 2 Duke and No. 3 Virginia, with the Tar Heels a half-game back in the win column.
Currently, UNC has a NCAA NET rating of No. 9, and Louisville is slotted at No. 12. On the 2019 Bracket Matrix Web site, the bevy of prognosticators views both the Tar Heels and the Cardinals as a No. 3 seed for March Madness. This sounds about right to me, and I could see either school move up to the two-line if it continues to trend in a positive direction.
From a statistical standpoint, North Carolina holds an edge in the majority of categories, save for points allowed and turnovers committed. Rebounding is critical, particularly on the offensive side as it relates to second-chance points. The Tar Heels, on occasion, are a tad sloppy with the ball, averaging more than 14 turnovers per contest. Louisville has to aggressively pressure UNC to generate some steals and easy buckets in transition.
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index says that the Cardinals possess a 51.0 percent chance to prevail. I’m not much of a betting man, but this seems like a pick’em situation. Though Louisville is on its own turf, my sense is that the Tar Heels really want revenge on the Cardinals, and ultimately North Carolina’s high-octane offense will prove the difference in a closely fought feud.
Prediction: North Carolina 78 – Louisville 74