TCU and Iowa State will meet Saturday afternoon in a Big 12 game that seems one-sided. Can the Horned Frogs pull off the upset in Ames?
TV schedule: Saturday, February 9, 2:00 pm ET. ESPNU
Arena: Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa
Since Jamie Dixon returned to his alma mater in 2016, the TCU (16-6) program has been in much better shape. Unfortunately, this doesn’t look like a season where they’ll contend at the top of the Big 12. They’ve already dropped five Big 12 games (all on the road) and will face significant difficulty against Iowa State. At the very least, they did score a close win at home against Oklahoma State on Wednesday.
For the Horned Frogs, the offense comes from all over the court. Junior guard Desmond Bane (15.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg) led the charge against OSU with 26 points and has stood out in TCU’s conference wins. Senior guard Alex Robinson (12.7 ppg, 7.5 apg) is a top-rated ball distributor. Unfortunately, this team desperately misses junior point guard Jaylen Fisher (12.1 ppg), who is out for the season.
In a heavy Big 12, TCU is near the bottom of the pack, rated 41st in KenPom. They’re starting guards are highly rated in offensive usage and don’t turn the ball over at a high rate. Statistically, 3-point defense is the Horned Frogs’ best category (24th in the nation), though stopping teams on the road hasn’t been happening this season.
On the other side of the court, Iowa State (18-5) is a top 25 team that currently sits at second place in the Big 12. They’ve won four straight games, and have beaten a pair of ranked teams (Texas Tech and Ole Miss) on the road in the last month. With Kansas seemingly down (they already split the season series with the Jayhawks), the Cyclones are in a prime position to actually win this league.
For the Cyclones, the player to watch is senior guard Marial Shayok (19.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg). The Canadian guard is a shooting machine, knocking down free throws and outside shots at a high rate. Another player to watch is sophomore guard Lindell Wigginton (12.7 ppg). After missing the beginning of the season due to injury, he’s been on fire, leading the team with 28 against West Virginia last week and dropping 18 on the Sooners a few days ago.
The Cyclones sit at 12th in KenPom, the highest rated team in the Big 12. The team has a great offense (14th in the nation) and are in the top five in 3-point shooting. Their guard play has been solid, especially since Wigginton has returned. They’re 22nd in the nation in offensive turnovers; this team takes care of the ball when they’re playing well.
For the Horned Frogs, they’ll need a lot of things to go right, especially needing Bane to have a great game shooting. Slowing down Iowa State at home will be tricky and this team has faltered time and time again on the road. For the Cyclones, they simply need to play their game. If they hit a few outside shots and take care of the basketball, then they’ll put themselves in a very good position to win.
As wild as it sounds, Iowa State has a very good chance to win the Big 12, and this is exactly the kind of game that they cannot lose. TCU will continue their struggles on the road and be overwhelmed. The Cyclones haven’t given up more than 68 points at home in conference play; expect their offense to hit enough shots to win without trouble.