Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga are always on top of the WCC and meet on Saturday night in Spokane; can the Gaels pull off a major stunner or will the Bulldogs hold on at home?
TV schedule: Saturday, February 9, 10:00 pm ET. ESPN2
Arena: McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane, Washington
As always seems to be the case, Saint Mary’s (15-9) remains one of the best teams in the WCC, with coach Randy Bennett having built quite the program. They’re still a few steps behind Gonzaga, but they always seem to have a top-notch offense. They sit 6-3 in the WCC and have dropped a few head-scratching games this season. Their poor play at times has been enough to keep them from an at-large bid, especially without a few wins over Gonzaga to buoy their resume.
There’s always an international flavor on the Gaels roster, though the focus will be on two players from California. Junior guard Jordan Ford (22.1 ppg) is one of the most prolific scorers in the conference, putting in 28 points in the Gaels’ win against Pacific on Thursday. Sophomore forward Malik Fitts (16.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg) can be a force down low, and he can step up and knock down a few outside shots a game. He’s been shooting well lately, going for 27 and 30 in recent games.
That feisty Gaels offense currently sits at 12th in offensive efficiency, enough to make them 40th in KenPom. The team is very efficient from the 3 and makes their shots all over the floor at a solid rate. They do play at a relatively slow pace, and they’ll really need their 135th rated defense to step up.
On the home side, Gonzaga (22-2) has once again been one of the nation’s best teams. They won the Maui Invitational with a win over Duke and are flawless more than halfway through WCC play. Their only losses are to Tennessee and North Carolina, two very tough teams, and this team are in a prime position for another deep March run.
The player to watch for the Bulldogs is junior forward Rui Hachimura (20.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg) from Japan. He’s had some very impressive showings (32 points against San Diego last week) and is a finalist for a number of prestigious national awards. Junior forward Brandon Clarke (16.5 ppg, 8.1 rpg) is another player to watch, coming off a monster performance against San Francisco; a 20 point, 16 rebound outburst. One thing to watch will be if junior forward Killian Tillie plays after spraining his foot on Thursday night.
This Gonzaga team is 1st in the nation in offensive efficiency and sit comfortably at 3rd in KenPom. The team shoots solidly from outside and there isn’t a better team inside the paint. The Bulldogs also protect the ball well and have defended really well, especially in WCC play against inferior opponents.
For the Gaels, pulling off this road upset is going to take a monumental effort out of Ford and Fitts. This will be two dueling offenses, though Gonzaga plays at a much quicker pace. If the Bulldogs control the pace and get Hachimura going early, then this won’t be much of a game.
Even if Tillie is out, there’s still more than enough talent on this Gonzaga team to take this game at home. Despite a few rough outings, this Saint Mary’s team is no slouch, but they still are not at the same level as the Bulldogs. They’ll hold on at home yet again.