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NCAA Basketball: Viriginia, Texas, and TCU seeking redemption in March

By Jacob Zinkula

CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - JANUARY 05: Braxton Key #2 of the Virginia Cavaliers smiles as he comes off the court beside De'Andre Hunter #12 and Kihei Clark #0 in the second half during a game against the Florida State Seminoles at John Paul Jones Arena on January 5, 2019 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - JANUARY 05: Braxton Key #2 of the Virginia Cavaliers smiles as he comes off the court beside De'Andre Hunter #12 and Kihei Clark #0 in the second half during a game against the Florida State Seminoles at John Paul Jones Arena on January 5, 2019 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images) /
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Every NCAA Basketball team wants to win come March. Some may be more desperate than others, however, especially those that suffered early exits in last season’s tournament.

I was a fan of Seton Hall last season, as I liked the team’s mix of talent and experience. There was a more intangible reason, however, that I was convinced the Pirates would win at least one tournament game last March: Seton Hall had lost back-to-back 1st round games in the NCAA Tournament. In 2015-16, 6-seed Seton Hall fell in the 1st round to Gonzaga. The following season, the 9-seed Pirates fell in the 1st round to Arkansas.

In 2017-18, Kevin Willard’s squad returned four seniors that had suffered both losses, and I figured there had to be few teams in the country more motivated to get at least one tournament victory. Not only had the program suffered back-to-back 1st round losses, but this was the last chance at a victory for the four seniors. Seton Hall didn’t have a magical tournament run, but they finally pulled of a 1st round victory, defeating NC St. 94-83.

I decided to look into whether any teams fit the “Seton Hall” profile this season. Below is a list of teams that suffered a 1st round (or 1st Four) loss last season. The bolded teams are currently projected to make this year’s tournament.

(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and are up to date through the games completed on Feb 12.).

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Then, I looked back to see if any of these teams really fit the “Seton Hall” profile and had lost back-to-back 1st round games. Again, the teams in bold are currently projected to make the tournament.

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2018 1st Rd Losers/Projected To Make Tourney:

Montana: The 14-seeded Grizzlies fell 61-47 to Michigan in the 1st Round last season but only trailed by three at the half. The Grizzlies are currently ranked 127th in KenPom, and this team has been through the wars together, as Montana is 4th in Experience and 13th in Minutes Continuity. The Grizzlies have the 13th best Effective Field Goal % in the nation.

Lipscomb: As a 15-seed, Lipscomb fell 84-66 to UNC last season. This season, Lipscomb is all the way up to 33rd in KenPom with a notable road victory at TCU.  After Gonzaga and Buffalo, the Bisons could be the best mid-major team in the country.  Defense is the strength of this squad, as it ranks 16th in defense.

North Carolina St: The Wolfpack fell in the 8-9 game last season to the aforementioned Seton Hall. Ranked 39th in KenPom, NC St. has struggled as of late, losing four of its last six games. Markell Johnson still hasn’t returned to form after returning from injury, however, and things could turn around if he finds his way. The Wolfpack have been victims to a tough recent ACC gauntlet, and still have the talent to stabilize and get to a Round of 32.

TCU:  As a 6-seed, the Horned Forgs fell victim to some “Syracuse zone” magic last season, falling 57-52. Losing Jaylen Fisher for the season has put a ceiling on this year’s team, but its recent road victory at Iowa St. proves one shouldn’t count them out. Ranked 36th in KenPom, the Horned Frogs have a trio of Alex Robinson, Kounat Noi, and Desmond Bane that are capable of winning them a tournament game.

Oklahoma: The Trae Young-led Sooners fell in overtime to Rhode Island last season as a 10-seed. This season’s squad has had some flashes where it’s looked pretty good, but it’s currently on a five-game losing streak. The Sooners have really come back to earth, and if they don’t turn things around soon, they won’t even get a chance to avenge last season’s loss.

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Texas: The Longhorns fell to Nevada in a 7-10 game last season. An analytics darling, this season’s squad is ranked 23rd in KenPom despite only a 14-10 record.  Texas has taken its share of losses and arguably hit rock bottom in a 98-88 road loss to Georgia. But since that game, the Longhorns beat Kansas at home, fell by only five at Iowa State, beat Baylor by 12 at home, then most recently beat West Virginia on the road by 22. This hasn’t been an incredible run, but things could be looking up for Shaka Smart’s team.

Virginia: Likely last season’s most notable 1st round loser, the Cavaliers fell as a 1-seed to UMBC. I think Virginia was really good last season. I think they are probably better this season. And I think they will be quite motivated to have a better tournament showing. Watch out.

2017-2018 Back-To-Back 1st Round Losers/Projected To Make Tourney

New Mexico St: The Aggies were a very popular pick to upset Clemson in the 12-5 matchup but fell 79-68. The prior season,  they fell as 14-seed to Baylor by 18 points.  Although the team has lost last season’s stars in Zach Lofton and Jemerrio Jones to graduation, this season’s team actually ranks better in KenPom (54th vs. 60th). Rebounding is the strength of this squad, as it ranks 7th in offensive rebounding and 16th in defensive rebounding.

Bucknell: The 14-seed Bison fell in a hard fought game to Michigan St. The prior season, 13-seed Bucknell fell 86-80 to West Virginia. At 143rd in KenPom, Bucknell is probably not as good as last season, which is largely due to the loss of Zach Thomas to graduation. Getting hot from three would likely give Bucknell the best chance at an upset, as the team takes threes at the 44th highest rate in the country.

South Dakota St: Mike Daum is still looking for an NCAA tournament victory. After losing as a 16 seed to Gonzaga two seasons ago, the Jackrabbits fell 81-73 to Ohio State as a 12 seed last season. This season, South Dakota St. would likely be in line for a 13 or 14 seed, but their current 77 KenPom ranking is actually one spot above last year’s team. The Jackrabbits have a dangerous offense, and are one of only a few teams that are both attempting >= 40% of shots from three and making >= 40% of them.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies have suffered back-to-back losses in the 8-9 game, two seasons ago to Wisconsin and last season to Alabama. More than any other team, I think Virginia Tech fits the “Seton Hall” profile. Not only do they have an experienced roster that has suffered consecutive 1st round losses, the Hokies have a lot of talent. Ranked 10th in KenPom, Virginia Tech has the 2nd best three-point percentage in the nation. For these reasons, I’ve remained confident that the Hokies will at least squeak out a 1st round victory this March.

For a lot of this season, it looked like Virginia Tech might earn a top-four seed, making a trip to the Round of 32 quite probable. But with Justin Robinson out due to injury, the Hokies have taken some losses and are currently projected as a 5-seed. Assuming Robinson gets back healthy, I think Virginia Tech’s talent, along with their “Seton Hall” motivation, will give them at least one tourney victory.

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Chances are at least a few of these teams will get a victory or two this March, and the experience garnered from past tournament defeats may end up being a big reason why.

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