Butler Basketball: Keys to success at home against DePaul

Following a heart-breaking road loss to St. John’s, Butler basketball finds itself squarely on the bubble. How can the Dawgs take down DePaul?

And here we go again. After winning back-to-back games against Seton Hall and Georgetown, Butler basketball had a great opportunity to move squarely into all projected bracketology fields with a road matchup against St. John’s. And while the team came out a bit flat and never really got it going from distance, they fought hard and even took the lead in the final seconds before falling in overtime. On the whole, the loss does not crush Butler’s NCAA Tournament chances but it was a big missed opportunity.

With just six regular-season games left, Butler is currently sitting right on the cutline for the Big Dance. Heading into this weekend, our bracketology projected field places the Dawgs as a No. 12 seed and as the last team in the bracket. This is obviously the kind of precarious position that Butler will want to avoid heading into Selection Sunday so it is vital that the team takes care of business in the games they should win and snag one or two as underdogs.

With DePaul coming to town this weekend, there is no better time to get back on track and put together an outstanding performance. I know others might disagree with me, but I feel as though this is the closest the team has been to completely putting it together this season. Now, without any further ado, let’s dive into previewing the matchup and giving three potential keys to success for Butler basketball against DePaul. (Note: All statistics were found via KenPom or Sports-Reference.)

1. Find a way to stay active on the glass.

DePaul is one of the better rebounding teams in the entire nation and that should strike fear in the hearts of Butler fans. On the season, the Blue Demons are snagging offensive rebounds on 33.7% of possessions (41st nationally) and are also grabbing 75.2% of the available defensive rebounds (31st). These are truly outstanding numbers and that is not a great sign for Butler, who is one of the poorest rebounding teams in the entire country.

In order to accomplish this key, each Butler player needs to stay fundamental and aggressive on the glass. This means always finding a body when a shot goes up and then aggressive seeking out the ball rather than waiting for it to come to them. Most notably, the Dawgs will need to find a way to keep Paul Reed, who has been on fire as of late, off the glass. He is arguably one of the top rebounders in the entire Big East and can be a difficult player to match up with at 6-foot-9.

On the defensive glass, sophomore Jordan Tucker will likely be the most active for Butler. He has had his issues with consistency on both ends of the floor since gaining eligibility midseason but has always shown effort on the glass. That has resulted in Tucker currently holding the third-highest defensive rebounding rate in the entire Big East at 24.8%. In the first meeting between these two teams, Tucker snagged eight boards (second behind Baldwin – 14) while Butler outrebounded DePaul, 37-31 (but lost on the off. glass, 11-6)

2. Seek out easy buckets in transition.

I know Butler is not a team that plays with a tremendous amount of pace but they definitely have the ability to score in transition. With speedy guards like Kamar Baldwin and Aaron Thompson running the break and multiple shooters quickly finding spots on the perimeter, this team can be dangerous after a turnover or long miss. And with DePaul ranking in the bottom half of the nation in offensive turnover rate (19.8%, 251st), this is something that Butler can take advantage of.

Easy points are never easy to come by in Big East play so every member of the Butler team needs to stay engaged defensively while hopefully causing some DePaul turnovers. The Dawgs were unable to take advantage of this weakness during the first meeting with the Blue Demons (forced just nine turnovers for four fast-break points) but that could change at Hinkle. If Butler is able to get out and run a little in transition, this will certainly excite the crowd and help boost the defensive confidence of the entire team.

3. Move the ball to create open looks from distance.

I know some people have complained a bit about Butler “relying on the 3-point shot” too much this year and I agree to an extent. While I have talked at length on the Hinkle Heat Check podcast about how this team needs to let it fly from deep, that is only the case when quality ball movement is present. On the season, Butler is 13-4 when shooting better than 31% from three (1-7 in all other games). And considering they are a strong shooting team in the first place (36.1% for the year), it makes sense to keep letting it fly if the ball movement leads to quality looks. 

During the first meeting between these two teams, Butler absolutely lit it up from the perimeter. The Dawgs shot 13-for-28 (46%) from deep in that 18-point road win but they also recorded 18 assists and that played a major factor in the perimeter shooting. Most notably, Sean McDermott and Tucker combined to shoot 9-for-16 in that game while all but two players recorded an assist. In my opinion, Butler is a team that features three elite college basketball shooters in McD, J-Tucks, and Paul Jorgensen but they are at their best in catch-and-shoot situations.

If Thompson/Baldwin run the offense efficiently and everyone moves the ball with fluidity, it is hard to imagine that Butler will not get open look after open look from distance. This is especially true in this matchup when you consider DePaul not only allows opponents to shoot 43.6% of their total FGA from three (311th nationally) but also hit on 36.0% of those trifectas (265th). For reference, Butler shoots 36.1% from three on the season (90th) while attempting 42.7% of their total shots from deep (78th).

In the end, I think that Butler’s offensive firepower will show up in this one and they will once again shoot their way to victory against DePaul. As long as the Dawgs’ limit the Blue Demons’ ability to record second-chance baskets, I think they should walk away with a much-needed home win for their bracketology hopes.

Final Prediction: Butler Bulldogs – 78, DePaul Blue Demons -71.