Bracketology Bubble Watch: Who deserves at-large consideration?
Others to consider
Lead-pipe lock: Gonzaga, Nevada
Firmly in the field: Buffalo
Some perspiration: None.
Double the deodorant: Utah State, Lipscomb, Belmont, San Francisco, Saint Mary’s
Buffalo Bulls (23-3, 11-2 MAC)
NET: 18 | KPI: 21 | SOR: 23 | BPI: 21 | KP: 21 | Sag: 30
Q1: 3-1 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 9-1 | Q4: 7-0
Buffalo is in pretty similar territory as Wofford. The Bulls have been one of the best mid-major teams throughout this season and they should be a lock to make the Big Dance. But considering their relatively weak SOS to close the season, they are not quite there. The Bulls will be favored to win each of their last five games but they probably only need to win three to remain safely in the field. For good measure, though, Buffalo should just continue to roll through the MAC and land a high seed in the Big Dance. This team has what it takes. Current Projected Seed: No. 7 and I wish I could believe the committee would put them higher.
Utah State Aggies (21-6, 11-3 MWC)
NET: 36 | KPI: 53 | SOR: 52 | BPI: 51 | KP: 41 | Sag: 55
Q1: 1-2 | Q2: 2-3 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 12-0
Utah State’s season might come down to their home matchup with Nevada on Mar. 2. On the whole, I can get behind the Aggies as an at-large team but their lack of a winning record in Q1/2 while also playing only seven of those games is hard to get over. I have Utah State just on the outside looking in but that would quickly change if they can finish the regular season with four more wins (including one over Nevada). It might come as a surprise but the Aggies currently control their own destiny to win the regular-season Mountain West title. Current Projected Seed: OUT (First Four Out).
Lipscomb Bisons (22-6, 12-2 ASun)
NET: 46 | KPI: 79 | SOR: 53| BPI: 44 | KP: 45 | Sag: 72
Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 2-2 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 13-0
Are Lipscomb’s at-large hopes gone? During this past week, the Bisons suffered their second loss in three games, this time coming on the road against Florida Gulf Coast, which is no longer the “Dunk City” of old. This was a crushing defeat for the Bisons’ at-large hopes and they might not be completely destroyed. Should they win their final two regular-season games and make the Atlantic Sun Tournament final, maybe they have a shot. We will find out if they get there. Current Projected Seed: No. 12 as an automatic bid.
Belmont Bruins (22-4, 13-2 OVC)
NET: 62 | KPI: 54 | SOR: 40 | BPI: 64 | KP: 57 | Sag: 63
Q1: 2-1 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 2-2 | Q4: 14-0
Belmont has quietly won 10 consecutive games. And while bubble teams have fallen left and right, the Bruins are starting to hear their name creep more seriously into the at-large conversation. Their collection of wins might not be great and they have three pretty disappointing losses but if they do not lose another game until the OVC championship, I would not count this team out. Current Projected Seed: No. 12 as an automatic bid.
Saint Mary’s Gaels (18-10, 9-4 WCC)
NET: 40 | KPI: 49 | SOR: 84 | BPI: 40 | KP: 39 | Sag: 44
Q1: 1-5 | Q2: 1-2 | Q3: 8-3 | Q4: 8-0
Saint Mary’s has pretty outstanding metric rankings despite the fact that their overall and quadrant records are quite weak. They are just 2-7 in Q1/2 games and they also hold three bad losses so far this season and that means that they have a long way to go to potentially land an at-large bid. Thankfully, if they catch fire down the stretch, the Gaels already have the metric rankings necessary to land a bid. In order to seriously take SMC seriously as an at-large team, they will need to reach at least the semifinals of the WCC before dropping another game. Current Projected Seed: OUT (Next Four Out).
San Francisco Dons (21-6, 9-4 WCC)
NET: 48 | KPI: 58 | SOR: 45 | BPI: 48 | KP: 46 | Sag: 53
Q1: 0-4 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 6-1 | Q4: 12-0
San Francisco, in my opinion, is in a tough spot to make the NCAA Tournament. Even though their record is quite solid and they do not have any really bad losses, their lack of Q1 wins sets them back quite a bit. On the whole, I’m not sure I see them really jumping enough bubble teams to reach the Big Dance. If the Dons want to get back into the at-large conversation, they will likely need to reach at least the semifinals of the WCC Tournament before dropping their next game. Once they get there, we can check back again to see where they are at relative to the cutline. Current Projected Seed: OUT.
Next. Bracketology Projected Field of 68. dark
That concludes this fifth edition of the 2019 Bubble Watch. I hope that you enjoyed and if you have a team that you think should have been included, let me know on Twitter: @hardwiredsports. Looking forward to talking college hoops with all of you in the coming months.