Bracketology Bubble Watch: Who deserves at-large consideration?
Big East Conference
Lead-pipe lock: Villanova, Marquette
Firmly in the field: St. John’s.
Some perspiration: None.
Double the deodorant: Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown.
St. John’s Red Storm (19-8, 7-7 BE)
NET: 48 | KPI: 30 | SOR: 35 | BPI: 50 | KP: 58 | Sag: 49
Q1: 6-5 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 8-0
The metrics might not love St. John’s but the talent (and the resume) is clearly there for this team to reach the NCAA Tournament. Sure, they are wildly inconsistent but have put together enough quality wins while avoiding bad losses to likely land a single-digit seed in the Big Dance. Also, the level of talent in their starting five will make a lot of elite teams sweat when they see the Johnnies in their region. If, and this is a big if, Chris Mullin is able to get his team to play at its highest potential consistently, watch out. Current Projected Seed: No. 9.
Seton Hall Pirates (16-10, 7-7 BE)
NET: 64 | KPI: 39 | SOR: 48 | BPI: 62 | KP: 61 | Sag: 53
Q1: 3-6 | Q2: 8-1 | Q3: 2-3 | Q4: 3-0
Seton Hall, in my opinion, is in a tough spot. Even though I currently have the Pirates in my projected field of 68, I am not sure how much longer they will be able to stay in. Seton Hall has seemingly flirted with the cutline throughout this season and they have an exceedingly difficult closing schedule. KenPom projects that Seton Hall will drop each of its last four games (although three of them have a >40% of victory) and that would definitely put them out of the tournament. In order to feel safe, the Pirates should shoot for four more victories (including the BET), in my opinion. Current Projected Seed: No. 11 (Last Four Byes).
Butler Bulldogs (15-12, 6-8 BE)
NET: 49 | KPI: 47 | SOR: 71 | BPI: 45 | KP: 51 | Sag: 43
Q1: 2-7 | Q2: 5-5 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 3-0
Another Big East team that is right on the cutline, Butler missed a big opportunity during this past week when they fell on the road to Marquette. Of course, this was not a bubble-bursting loss by any stretch but the Dawgs could have really used a signature victory to move firmly into the field. With that said, though, Butler did receive some help this week from their SOS and other bubble teams dropping “easier” games. Butler is firmly in the NCAA Tournament conversation but they will likely need to win four more games (including the BET) to remain near or on the right side of the cutline come Selection Sunday. With a winnable closing schedule approaching, the Dawgs should be shooting for at least a .500 record in conference. Current Projected Seed: No. 12 (Last Four In).
Creighton Bluejays (14-13, 5-9 BE)
NET: 54 | KPI: 51 | SOR: 69 | BPI: 47 | KP: 52 | Sag: 50
Q1: 3-9 | Q2: 3-4 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 3-0
Creighton desperately needed a road win over DePaul to stop the bleeding (four-game losing streak) during this past week and they were able to get just that. On the whole, though, the Bluejays are now only just above .500 for the season and that just won’t cut it for the NCAA Tournament. Their resume is fairly pedestrian on the whole and they need to find a way to improve that down the stretch. Creighton has a winnable closing schedule but they will likely need to go 4-0, and that would include a road win over Marquette, in order to get back to the cutline. Current Projected Seed: OUT.
Georgetown Hoyas (16-10, 6-7 BE)
NET: 71 | KPI: 48 | SOR: 67 | BPI: 73 | KP: 74 | Sag: 62
Q1: 4-4 | Q2: 4-4 | Q3: 1-2 | Q4: 7-0
Georgetown only played one game during this past week and it was a big one as the team defended their home court against Villanova. This was the best win of the entire season for the Hoyas and it puts them pretty much in the thick of the bubble race with under a month left to go in the season. Georgetown is in the second tier of my bubble teams right now but their relatively favorable closing schedule gives them a decent shot. If the Hoyas are able to finish their conference schedule with four wins in five games while moving up in all metrics, they could dance. That is easier said than done, though, especially for a young team. Current Projected Seed: OUT (Next Four Out).