Bracketology Bubble Watch: Who deserves at-large consideration?
Southeastern Conference
Lead-pipe lock: Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State
Firmly in the field: Auburn, Ole Miss
Some perspiration: None.
Double the deodorant: Alabama, Florida, Arkansas
Auburn Tigers (18-8, 7-6 SEC)
NET: 20 | KPI: 38 | SOR: 36 | BPI: 12 | KP: 14 | Sag: 12
Q1: 1-6 | Q2: 9-2 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 4-0
Auburn added two much-needed wins during this past week by taking down Vanderbilt on the road and then eviscerating Arkansas. On the whole, I think that these two performances mostly solidified the Tigers right to be in the NCAA Tournament. Sure, their lack of Q1 wins is puzzling but top-20 rankings across all quality metrics make their positioning fairly clear. In my opinion, this is a Big Dance team with a high floor but a low ceiling. The year has been a little disappointing given the hopes for the team in the preseason. Current Projected Seed: No. 8.
Ole Miss Rebels (18-8, 8-5 SEC)
NET: 34 | KPI: 40 | SOR: 32 | BPI: 43 | KP: 42 | Sag: 41
Q1: 4-7 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 6-0
Ole Miss suffered a little bit of a head-scratching road loss to South Carolina during this past week but it came following a four-game winning streak. On the whole, the Rebels seem quite safely in the projected field at this point in time and their remaining schedule is pretty favorable. Sure, they have to face both Tennessee and Kentucky, but both matchups come at home and their other three remaining games are against teams ranked outside of the KenPom top-60. This team should dance and is now mostly just playing for seeding. Current Projected Seed: No. 8.
Alabama Crimson Tide (15-9, 6-5 SEC)
NET: 52 | KPI: 44 | SOR: 56 | BPI: 61 | KP: 60 | Sag: 56
Q1: 2-6 | Q2: 7-3 | Q3: 3-2 | Q4: 3-0
Hey Alabama, I’d like to introduce you to the cutline. After flirting with the bubble for about the last month, the Crimson Tide have suffered three consecutive losses and they are now right on the edge between making and missing the NCAA Tournament. And with a daunting closing schedule approaching that includes home matchups with LSU and Auburn and a road date with Arkansas, it will not be easy to stay on the right side. Alabama is floundering at the wrong time right now and they need to win at least three of their last five games. The problem, though, is that KenPom projects them to win just one. Current Projected Seed: No. 12 (Last Four In).
Florida Gators (15-11, 7-6 SEC)
NET: 31 | KPI: 46 | SOR: 44 | BPI: 30 | KP: 27 | Sag: 28
Q1: 3-10 | Q2: 4-0 | Q3: 3-1 | Q4: 5-0
Unlike just about everyone else on the bubble, Florida just recorded a monster week. During the past seven days, the Gators not only took down both Alabama and LSU but made both victories happen on the road. This was by far and away the best performance from any bubble team during this past week and it has put Florida in actually pretty decent shape to make the Big Dance. This is especially true when you consider they have a relatively favorable closing schedule as well. I didn’t think I would say this two weeks ago (when they were 12-11, 4-6 SEC) but I think that the Gators are going to dance. Current Projected Seed: No. 10.
Arkansas Razorbacks (14-12, 5-6 SEC)
NET: 73 | KPI: 64 | SOR: 84 | BPI: 76 | KP: 65 | Sag: 57
Q1: 1-7 | Q2: 2-3 | Q3: 7-2 | Q4: 4-0
Arkansas is going to have a really tough time to make the NCAA Tournament. They are definitely on the wrong side of the cutline right now and have also lost four consecutive games. It seems highly unlikely that the Razorbacks will all-of-a-sudden catch fire and win five straight to end the regular season and emerge as an at-large contender. I am not, though, going to say that is impossible. Current Projected Seed: OUT.